Finland’s Confidence Continues Its Sinking Cycle

Consumer confidence in Finland fell to -13.3 in December from -12.4 in November. The confidence metric stands in the 2.9 percentile of its historic queue of values. It also stands at its 12-month low, its lowest mark of the year. One year ago, the consumer confidence measure stood at its lowest point on data back to January 2001. While the overall ranking for consumer confidence is improved in 2023 compared to a year-ago, the reading is still low, and momentum is poor.

The assessment of Finland's ‘economy now’ improved slightly to -41.4 in December from -42.5 in November. That's above its 12-month low of -50.3. The progression of averages from 12-month to 6-month to 3-month, doesn't show much ongoing improvement in this metric.

Expectations for Finland's economy in 12 months also improved in December to -16.8 from -19.1 in November. However, the progression of averages from 12-month to 6-month to 3-month does not show improvement in train; it shows deterioration.

Consumer price inflation over the past year improved slightly in December to 4.1 from 4.2 and there has been steady improvement on the inflation front as the year has gone by.

Unemployment in Finland has been steady over the last three months although it deteriorated slightly in December at -31.7 compared to -31.3 in November. The moving averages also show that there has been a gradual deterioration from 12-month to 6-month to 3-month. The personal threat of unemployment ‘now’ shows a sharply weaker number at -14.2 in December compared to -11.5 in November, and the threat of personal employment has been declining as well from 12-month to 6-month to 3-month.

The economic environment shows the favorability of the time to purchase durables deteriorated slightly in December at -25.7 compared to -23.7 in November. The 12-month, to 6-month, to 3-month progression of averages shows a slight ongoing improvement on this metric.

The favorability of time for saving worsened slightly at -13.6 in December compared to -13.4 in November. There has been little movement in this metric, but it has gradually worsened.

The favorability of time for raising a loan balance deteriorated slightly month-to-month and the 12-month, to 6-month, to 3-month sequence shows slight change in this measure.

The household financial situation deteriorated in December, falling to a 16.4 rating from 21.9 in November. The 12-month, to 6-month, to 3-month averages of this metric have been worsening.

Household possibilities to save over the next 12 months were worse in December compared to November. This metric has been sliding from 12-month, to 6-month, to 3-month.

Ranking perspectives The queue percentile rankings show consumer confidence overall at a 2.9 percentile standing, which is quite weak although a slight improvement from what it was a year ago. The economy ‘now’ and the economy in 12 months, both have standings in their 15th to 20th percentiles, up from what they were a year ago, but still clearly quite weak. The assessment of consumer prices shows an improvement in inflation that is down to its 87.7 percentile from its 97.7 percentile one year ago. Unemployment in Finland shows a standing at its 17.8 percentile while the personal threat of unemployment is at its 14.3 percentile; both are sharply lower than what they were a year ago when the standings were in their 40th percentiles, respectively.

The environmental standings showed the favorability of a time to purchase durables has only a 4.7 percentile standing although that's better than it was a year ago. The favorability of time for saving has a 2.2 percentile standing, above what it was a year ago when it was on its all-time low on data back to 2001.

The favorability of the time for raising a loan balance fell to an all-time low in December 2023. Households rate the possibility to save over the next 12 months at a 0.7 percentile standing, extremely weak, and far below what it was one year ago.

Summing up There are some clear cross currents in these readings: while the household financial situation seems to have deteriorated sharply, the concerns about personal unemployment and overall unemployment are not as high as they were a year ago. Inflation is being repaired, but it still has a relatively high standing. The assessment of the economy now and in the future is still a bottom one-fifth standing which makes it quite weak. As far as consumer purchases are concerned, the environment for purchasing durables is still extremely weak. Overall, the consumers’ assessment of the economy is poor. Expectations are weak and they are weak at low values. Altogether it's a disappointing report and certainly disappointing to end with the consumer confidence metric on its 12-month low. But that's the situation for Finland as 2023 draws to a close.