Global Composite PMIs Move Sideways

The composite PMI readings for March show 19 readings by month or time segment. In March nine of those get worse month-to-month. Six jurisdictions are below 50 indicating overall economic contraction; those six are France, Russia, Hong Kong, Japan, Zambia, and Egypt. This compares to only two below 50 in February (France and Hong Kong) and four in January (France, Italy, Brazil, and Singapore). These lists demonstrate it is not like these countries are mired in contraction; countries seem to come and go from the category of contraction except for France that contracts in all three months as well as over three months, six months and 12 months, based on average values. Hong Kong contracts in March and in February as well as over three months on average and on average over 12 months, but not over six months. Egypt contracts over three months, six months, and 12 months as well.

However, the above are the exceptions From January 2012, the average percentile standing for the 19 countries in their respective data queues as of March 2025 is a reading of 46.1%. But the median reading among all these standings is at 50% which marks the overall median. These factors suggest that the overall health of the global economy based on the composite readings here is near its median.

Sequentially, nine reporters are weak over three months compared to six months, then twelve are weaker over six months compared to 12-months, and three them are worse over 12 months compared to their averages of 12-months before.

Ten reporters have rank values above 50%, which places them above their respective individual medians.

The strongest rankings are 83.3% for Nigeria and 78.6% for Egypt. The weakest readings are 4.8% for Japan and 9.5% for Hong Kong. Among the U.S., EMU, Germany, The strongest rankings are 83.3% for Nigeria and 78.6% for Egypt. The weakest readings are 4.8% for Japan and 9.5% for Hong Kong. Among the United States, EMU, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom, the average standing is at 48.6% and the median is 54.8%. Only France, Italy and the U.K. have standings below their respective 50% marks on composite readings for this grouping of advanced economies- of course, we just saw Japan was much weaker.

The global economy now pitches into a new phase as Europe is going to be supported by enhanced military spending. However, the U.S. has just imposed sweeping broad tariffs globally and no one is quite sure what the objective for these tariffs will be. Are they meant to be permanent to raise revenue? Are they meant to pressure U.S. trade partners to lower tariffs on U.S. goods? Are some countries more targets than others?

The answers to these questions will reveal themselves over time and that will make it possible to better evaluate them.

Despite all the talk about tariffs being inflationary or at least raising the price level, the knee jerk reaction shows the dollar weaker, U.S. equity markets lower and the U.S. 10-year note higher in price with treasury yield down below 4.05%. Markets seem to be more fearful of the impact of tariffs on growth than on inflation. All of this will bear study in the period ahead. To be sure there are a lot of things in flux, and no one has enough eyeballs to keep an eye on everything so scan the horizon every day. Who knows what will come next? On guard for the future!