U.K. Distributive Trades Flounder But with More Upbeat Expectations

The U.K. distributive trades report offers a bifurcated view of the U.K. distributive trades sector. To generalize, the retailing portion of the report is weak while the wholesaling portion, for the most part, is firm-to-strong. There is quite a contrast to the rank standings of the line items surveyed in retailing compared to wholesaling. The average ranking across the retailing items is at the 23.9 percentile while for the distributive trades the average is the 55.9 percentile. Distributive trades average a reading that is above the respective component medians (above 50%) while for retailing the standing is about half that for the distributive trades. That leaves it well below the components’ medians in retailing averaging a standing near the top of the lower quartile of its queue of data.

Retailing changes and trends Retailing is mixed quarter-to-quarter. Capital spending and the business situation have taken a sizeable step back in retailing. However, import assessments advanced and the selling price advanced, while employment only ticked higher. Expectations for the selling price fell very sharply quarter-to-quarter as expectations for employment ticked higher. Compared to four quarters ago, both the current and expected selling price are exceptionally lower. Imports and capital spending are lower; employment is somewhat weaker as well. There has been a strong pickup over four quarters in expected employment.

Wholesaling changes and trends While wholesaling has much stronger rank standings than retailing in terms of its changes and trends, it also has a good measure of slowing. Selling prices are substantially lower quarter-to-quarter and capital spending has pulled back as well. Employment has become a bit weaker. In contrast, imports are up strongly compared to Q2 and the business situation is unchanged. After weakening sharply quarter-to-quarter, expected selling prices are only slightly weaker. Employment shows a small improvement in expectations compared to one quarter ago. Compared to a quarter ago, the selling price and the expected selling price both are much weaker. Capital spending plans are substantially weaker than they were a year-ago. But the business situation over the next six months has improved smartly and employment conditions compared to a year ago are up strongly with expected employment conditions up even more strongly.

Retailing standings Imports and capital spending are especially weak with standings below their 10th percentiles. The business situation for the next six months has only a 12.7 percentile standing. Compared to one year ago, the selling price is higher with a 51-percentile standing (above its historic median, by a small amount). But employment compared to a year ago has only a 19.6 percentile standing. Looking ahead for the selling price and employment expectations are not much different in a relative since with nearly the same standing relative to historic data as what is generated by current conditions.

Wholesaling standings For wholesaling imports are strong with a 74.5 percentile standing. Capital spending is much more restrained with a 24.5 percentile standing. The business situation over the next six months has a 67.6 percentile standing- a top one-third response. However, selling prices compared to average gains are more restrained with a 25.5 percentile standing. That is relatively weak while wholesales employment has a 70.6 percentile standing compared to where it was a year ago. Expectations for the selling price in wholesaling are for a much stronger relative performance with a percentile standing at its 47th percentile near its historic media. Expected employment is outright strong with an 81.4 percentile standing.

Summing up The distributive trade report exposes cross-currents. First, it clearly shows current wholesaling conditions are superior to current retailing conditions. But quarter-to-quarter both surveys show considerable weakening. Over four quarters both retailing and wholesaling show a step back is in progress. Capital spending, the selling price, and expected selling price, all are weaker over four quarters, for retailing and wholesaling. The business situation and expected employment improved in both retailing and wholesaling. For the most part, trends are heading lower. The exceptions are readings for wholesaling for the business situation, employment trend compared to a year ago, expected employment, and wholesale imports. For wholesaling trends remain lower for capital spending, as well as current and expected selling prices.