U.K. Industrial Orders Plunge

U.K. industrial orders fell to -35 in November from -26 in October. The three-month average of the series is -26, weaker than its -20 6-month average and its -18 12-month average. Conditions in industry continue to deteriorate. The queue standing on data back to 1991 has orders weaker only 11.7% of the time. This is a weak headline for the CBI survey.

Export orders and the look-ahead to the next three months for output volume both weakened in November. Export orders fell to -31 in November from -23 in October. The outlook for output volume fell to -7 in November from +15 in October. Both export orders and the outlook for volume show ongoing worsening in their sequential averages.

However, price expectations are rising to +11 in November from +7 in October. That is still below September’s +14. And sequential averages from 12-months to 3-months show that diminished expected prices pressures have, up to this point, ruled the roost. Manufacturing output readings that lag by two months show progressive weakness, with output falling at a 7.1% annual rate over three months. Among the price expectations, manufacturing output trends, and volume expectations, there is evidence of weakening and of lingering inflation pressures. Prices have a 65.8 percentile standing, above their historic median. And despite its recent weakness, the year-on-year growth in manufacturing output has a 60-percentile standing, above its historic median. Some of the signals on growth and inflation remain mixed. Still, there is clear evidence of weakening in progress.