U.S. Advance Goods Trade Deficit Narrows in March
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Deficit is smallest in four months.
- Exports rise but imports decline.
- Quarterly deficit is shallower than Q4’22.
The advance estimate of the U.S. international trade deficit in goods narrowed to $84.6 billion in March from $92.0 billion in February, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. This was the first time in the past four months that the goods deficit narrowed. A $90.0 billion deficit had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The deficit reached a peak of $125.1 billion in March 2022. In Q4 2022, a narrower trade deficit in goods and services (net exports) added 0.4 percentage point to quarterly real GDP growth. Today’s report suggests the goods deficit will make another slight addition to GDP growth.
Total exports rose 2.9% (2.7% y/y) in March after falling 3.8% in February. Changes were mixed across end-use categories. Industrial supplies & materials exports rose 6.4% (-3.5% y/y). Auto exports grew 4.3% (11.4% y/y) in March following an 11.9% decline. Nonauto consumer goods exports improved 2.0% (10.5% y/y) while capital goods exports edged 0.3% higher (6.6% y/y). Exports of foods, feeds & beverages declined 4.5% (-6.8% y/y) but “other” exports strengthened 7.6% (20.0% y/y).
Total imports declined 1.0% (-12.3% y/y) in March after falling 2.2% in February. The decline reflected a 2.9% drop (-3.7% y/y) in capital goods imports, the first decline since September 2020. Industrial supplies & materials imports declined 2.7% (-24.1% y/y) and auto imports eased 0.1% (+9.3% y/y). Imports of consumer goods ex-autos rebounded 2.4% (-20.6% y/y) while foods, feeds & beverage imports rose 0.9% (-3.9% y/y). Imports of “other goods” goods fell 3.3% (-2.5% y/y).
The advance international trade data can be found in Haver’s USECON database. The expectation figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is in AS1REPNA.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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