U.S. Business Inventories and Sales Increase in September
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Inventories increase is led by retailers.
- Sales improvement also paced by retailers.
- Inventory/sales ratio is steady.
Total business inventories rose 0.1% (2.2% y/y) in September following three consecutive months of 0.3% increase. A 0.2% rise had been expected in the Informa Global Markets Survey.
Retail inventories rose 0.9% (6.7% y/y) in September after a 0.8% August increase. Monthly Increases have been fairly stable for six months. Motor vehicle inventories increased 2.1% (20.9% y/y) after a 1.2% rise. General merchandise inventories rose 0.2% (2.3% y/y) after a 1.4% gain. Food and beverage store inventories fell 0.5% (+0.6% y/y) following a 1.3% increase. Furniture & appliance inventories rose 0.3% (-5.5% y/y) after falling 0.8%. Clothing inventories rose 0.8% (2.5% y/y) after two consecutive 0.9% increases while inventories of building materials rose 0.6% (-0.2% y/y) after a 0.3% gain.
Manufacturing inventories edged 0.2% lower (+0.2% y/y) in September after rising 0.1% in August. Wholesale inventories fell 0.2% (+0.3% y/y) in September after increasing 0.2% in both of the prior two months.
Total business sales rose 0.3% (0.5% y/y) in September after a 0.2% decline in August. Factory shipments fell 0.4% (+0.2% y/y) after a 0.7% decline. Wholesale sales rose 0.3% (-0.4% y/y) following a 0.2% increase. Retail sales increased 0.8% (1.7% y/y) following a 0.2% decline.
The inventory/sales (I/S) ratio held steady at 1.38 and has been roughly stable since late in 2022. The manufacturing I/S ratio held m/m at 1.46 in September, up from 1.45 in July. The wholesale I/S eased to 1.34 but has been moving sideways since the middle of last year. The retail I/S ratio held m/m at 1.33, up sharply from early-2021.
The manufacturing and trade data are in Haver’s USECON database. The Informa Global Markets forecast is in the MMSAMER database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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