U.S. CPI Edges Higher in November; Core Prices Strengthen
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Core services prices increase broadly.
- Goods price changes are mixed.
- Energy prices decline, but food costs increase.
The Consumer Price Index edged 0.1% higher last month following stability during October. An unchanged level of the CPI had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The 3.1% y/y rise remained below the peak 9.1% increase in June of last year. Prices excluding food & energy matched expectations and rose 0.3% last month, up from 0.2% in October. The steady 4.0% y/y increase remained below the peak 6.6% gain in September 2022.
The CPI less food, energy and shelter, another measure of core pricing power, rose 0.2% last month following two consecutive 0.1% upticks. The fairly steady 2.1% y/y gain was below the 7.6% peak in February of last year.
Energy prices declined 2.3% (-5.4%), about as they did in October. Gasoline prices fell 6.0%, the second decline since May and were down 8.9% y/y. Amongst other energy products, fuel oil prices weakened 2.2% (-19.3% y/y) after falling 3.4%. Electricity prices rose 1.4% (3.4% y/y) after rising 0.3% in October while natural gas prices strengthened 2.8% (-10.4% y/y) after rising 1.2%.
Food prices rose 0.2% (2.9% y/y) in November following a 0.3% increase. Egg prices strengthened 2.2% (-22.3% y/y) after edging 0.1% higher. Meat, poultry & fish prices declined 0.4% (+2.2% y/y) after rising 0.7% in October, while cereal & bakery product prices increased 0.5% (3.4% y/y) after rising 0.2%. Fruit & vegetable prices improved 0.3% (0.4% y/y) following two straight months of no change, while dairy prices improved 0.1% (-1.4% y/y) after a 0.3% October gain. Nonalcoholic beverage prices rose 0.5% (2.9% y/y) after little change during the prior five months.
Service costs less energy increased 0.5% in November (5.5% y/y) following a 0.3% gain. The cost of shelter rose 0.4% (6.5% y/y) after a 0.3% increase as owners’ equivalent rent of primary residences increased 0.5% (6.7% y/y) after a 0.4% gain. Rents of primary residences rose 0.5% (6.9% y/y) for the fourth straight month. Transportation services costs rose 1.1% (10.1% y/y) after strengthening 0.8% in October. Education & communication prices edged 0.1% higher (1.4% y/y) after holding steady in October. Recreation service prices rose 0.1% (4.8% y/y) for the second straight month, and medical care service costs rose 0.6% (-0.9% y/y) after two straight months of 0.3% increase.
In November, the CPI for goods less food & energy fell 0.3%, unchanged y/y, after five straight months of decline. Education & communication goods costs fell 2.6% (-7.9% y/y) after falling 1.3%. Recreation product prices weakened 0.6% (-0.6% y/y) after increasing 0.1% in October. Home furnishings prices weakened 0.7% (-0.3% y/y) after a 0.2% decline, while appliance costs were off 1.0% (-3.5% y/y), down for the seventh month in the last eight. Apparel prices fell 1.3% (+1.1 % y/y) after a 0.1% increase and new vehicle prices slipped 0.1% (+1.3% y/y) as they did in October. Used car & truck prices rose 1.6% (-3.8% y/y) after a 0.8% decline.
The Consumer Price figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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