U.S. CPI Gain Moderates in September; Core Prices Rise Steadily
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Energy price increase cools; food price rise remains modest.
- Core goods prices decline again; services strength fueled by shelter costs.
- Used vehicle prices fall sharply.
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in September following a 0.6% August increase. The rise compared to a 0.3% gain expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The 3.7% y/y rise remained increased from June’s 3.0%, but remained well below the 9.1% high in June 2022. Prices excluding food & energy rose an expected 0.3% last month, the same as in August. The 4.1% y/y increase remained the lowest since September 2021 and down from a 6.6% high in September 2022.
The CPI less food, energy and shelter, another measure of core pricing power, edged 0.1% higher during September after rising 0.3% in August. The 2.0% y/y increase remained below the 7.6% peak in February of last year.
Energy prices were up by a lessened 1.5% (-0.5%), following a 5.6% August increase. Gasoline prices increased 2.1% and were up 3.0% y/y. They rose 10.6% in August. Amongst other energy products, fuel oil prices rose 4.8% (-5.6% y/y) after an 8.4% rise. Electricity prices strengthened 1.3% (2.6% y/y) after a 0.2% August gain while natural gas prices fell 1.9% (-19.9% y/y) after edging 0.1% higher in August.
Food prices rose by a moderate 0.2% (3.7% y/y) in September for the third month. Egg prices rose 0.9% (-14.5% y/y), following seven straight monthly declines. Meat, poultry & fish prices increased 0.4% (1.5% y/y) after rising 1.0% in August, while cereal & bakery product prices fell 0.4% (+4.8% y/y) after a 0.5% rise. Fruit & vegetable prices held steady (0.8% y/y) after falling 0.2% and dairy prices improved 0.1% (-0.2% y/y) after falling 0.4% in August. Nonalcoholic beverage prices were unchanged (+4.0% y/y) after easing 0.2%.
The CPI excluding food, energy, shelter and used car & truck prices rose 0.2% last month following a 0.4% August increase. The 2.8 y/y rise remained well below the 6.7% high in September of last year. Goods prices less food, energy and used car & trucks eased 0.1% last month (1.6% y/y) after rising 0.1% in August. Education & communication goods costs rose 0.3% (-7.3% y/y) after a 0.7% decline. Recreation product prices rose 0.3% (0.2% y/y) after falling for three straight months. Home furnishings prices weakened 0.3% (+0.9% y/y) and reversed the August increase while appliance costs weakened 1.4% (-1.1% y/y) following a 0.2% decline. Apparel prices were off 0.8% (+2.3% y/y) after a 0.2% increase and new vehicle prices rose 0.3% (2.5% y/y) for the second straight month. Used car & truck prices fell 2.5% (-8.0% y/y) and have been falling since November of last year.
Service costs less energy increased 0.6% in September (5.7% y/y) following two months of 0.4% gain. The cost of shelter rose 0.6% (7.2% y/y) after a 0.3% increase as owners’ equivalent rent of primary residences increased 0.6% (7.1% y/y) after a 0.4% gain. Rents of primary residences rose 0.5% (7.4% y/y), the same as in August. Transportation services costs rose 0.7% (9.1% y/y) after strengthening 2.0% in August. Education & communication prices ticked 0.1% higher (2.5% y/y) for the second straight month. Recreation service prices moved up 0.5% (6.4% y/y) after easing 0.1% in August, but medical care service costs rose 0.3% (-2.6% y/y) after edging 0.1% higher in August.
The Consumer Price figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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