U.S. Durable Goods Orders Decline in July after Four Monthly Gains
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Aircraft orders produce volatility.
- Shipments are unchanged for second straight month.
- Order backlogs increase but inventories are little-changed.
New orders for durable goods declined 5.2% (+3.8% y/y) during July after increasing 4.4% in June, revised from 4.7%. The decline followed four straight months of increase. A 0.4% decline had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Transportation orders fell 14.3% (+9.3% y/y) after an 11.9% rise in June. Aircraft and parts orders declined 39.5% following a 57.8% rise in June. Nondefense aircraft orders fell 43.6% after a 71.1% surge. Defense aircraft orders dropped 10.9% (21.0% y/y) after a 2.0% June gain. Motor vehicle & parts orders rose 0.8% (7.0% y/y) after easing 0.2% in June.
Durable goods orders excluding transportation increased 0.5% (1.1% y/y) in July after a 0.2% rise in June. Orders for computers & electronic products slipped 0.1% (+1.5% y/y) and orders for electrical equipment & appliances rose 1.0% (7.5% y/y). Machinery orders improved 1.1% (0.7% y/y) while primary metals orders edged 0.1% higher (1.2% y/y). Defense product orders rose 0.3% (-1.0% y/y).
Orders for nondefense capital goods declined 15.6% (+6.3% y/y), while excluding aircraft, orders improved 0.1% (0.9% y/y) following a 0.4% decline in June.
Shipments of all manufactured goods rose 0.6% (-0.5% y/y) in July following a 0.2% gain. Shipments of durable goods held steady (4.0% y/y) for the second consecutive month while shipments of nondurable goods rose 1.1% (-4.5% y/y). Transportation shipments eased 0.3% (+10.0% y/y) while excluding transportation, durable goods shipments increased 0.2% (1.4% y/y).
Inventories of all manufacturing industries edged 0.1% higher (-0.3% y/y) following a 0.2% decline in June. Inventories of durable goods eased negligibly (1.3% y/y) while inventories of nondurable goods rose 0.3% (-2.6% y/y). Unfilled orders of durable goods rose 0.5% (6.6% y/y) in July after rising 1.8% in June.
Manufacturers’ orders and shipments of durable goods, as well as nondurable goods, are compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau; they are available in Haver’s USECON database. Unfilled orders and inventories are also included. The Action Economics forecast data are in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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