U.S. Energy Prices are Mixed in Latest Week
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Gasoline prices ease. Crude oil prices increase, but natural gas prices fall.
- Demand for gasoline increases moderately.
- Inventories of gasoline & crude oil slip.
Retail gasoline prices for all grades slipped to $3.18 per gallon (-8.6% y/y) in the week ended November 11 from $3.19 per gallon in the prior week. Prices stood at their lowest level since the fourth week of January. The recent high was $3.79 in the week ended April 22, and its all-time high of $5.11 occurred in the week ended June 11, 2022. The latest measure of on-highway diesel fuel prices was $3.52 per gallon (-18.0% y/y) versus $3.54 per gallon in the prior week. Diesel prices have ranged between $2.37 per gallon in the week ended November 2, 2020 to $5.81 in the week of June 20, 2022.
Crude oil prices increased to $71.58 per barrel (-7.4% y/y) in the week ended November 8 from $68.39 in the prior week. The recent range of average West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices has run between $69.41 in the week of March 24, 2023 to $91.45 in the week of September 29, 2023. Yesterday, the price was $68.12 per barrel. The price of European Brent crude oil stood at $75.10 per barrel last week (-18.4% y/y) versus $72.01 in the week prior. Yesterday’s price was $72.06 per barrel.
Natural gas prices declined to $1.57 per mmbtu (-36.4% y/y) from $1.82 in the prior week. Prices were below a $2.73 high in the second week of June. The price was $1.21 per mmbtu yesterday.
Gasoline demand fell 1.5% y/y in the four weeks ended November 1, compared to a 3.4% y/y rise in the prior four weeks. Demand for all petroleum products fell 1.5% y/y in the four weeks ended November 1 after a 2.7% y/y increase in the prior four weeks.
Crude oil input to refineries rose an accelerated 5.2% y/y in the four-week period ended November 1 after a 4.0% y/y increase in the prior four weeks. Input to refineries has been declining y/y all through this past August.
Gasoline inventories fell 2.7% y/y in the week ended November 1 after decreasing 5.7% y/y in the week prior. Inventories of residual fuel oil fell 14.6% in the week of November 1 after declining 11.8% y/y in the prior week. In contrast, crude oil inventories grew 3.5% y/y in the latest week following a 4.9% y/y increase during the prior week.
Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories rose to 23.8 days in the week ended November 1 from 23.3 days in the prior week. Data in the latest week show the lowest inventories since the first week of November 2022. Crude oil inventories slipped to 26.6 days’ supply in the week of November 1 from 26.8 days in the prior week. These compare to a low of 24.8 days in the week ended September 20, 2024 and a high of 31.9 days in the week of March 3, 2023.
These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price and supply/demand data can be found in Haver’s WEEKLY & USENERGY database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
