U.S. Energy Prices Decline in Latest Week
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Gasoline prices weaken to four-week low.
- Crude oil price decline is to three-week low.
- Natural gas costs fall to two-month low.
Retail gasoline prices for all grades fell to $3.59 per gallon (-3.3% y/y) in the week ended July 22 compared to $3.61 per gallon in the previous week. Prices are below the late-April high of $3.79 per gallon and the all-time high of $5.11 in the week ended June 13, 2022. Retail prices for on-highway diesel fuel declined to an average $3.78 per gallon (-3.2% y/y) last week from $3.83 in the prior week. These compared to a high of $4.63 per gallon in the third week of September 2023.
The average price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil declined to $82.19 per barrel (+8.7% y/y) in the week ended July 19 from $82.92 per barrel in the prior week and remained well below the all-time high reached in the week of July 4, 2008 of $142.46 per barrel. Yesterday, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil was $79.78 per barrel. The price of European Brent crude oil fell to $86.05 per barrel (+8.3% y/y) in the week ended July 19 compared to $86.80 in the prior week. The price of Brent has recently ranged from a low of $73.55 in the week ended June 30, 2023 to a high of $127.40 in the week ended June 10, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $83.44 per barrel.
Natural gas prices continued their recent decline and fell to an average of $2.02/mmbtu (-20.5% y/y) in the week ended July 19 from $2.26 in the prior week. Prices backpedaled from their $2.73 high reached one month ago and compare to a low of $1.40 averaged in the week of March 15. They remain below the high of $9.56/mmbtu averaged in the last week of August 2022. Yesterday, the price of natural gas recovered to $2.19/mmbtu.
Gasoline demand edged 0.2% higher y/y in the four weeks ended July 12 after improving 0.4% y/y in the four weeks ended July 5. Demand for all petroleum products rose 1.2% y/y in the last four weeks after rising 3.0% y/y in the previous period. Crude oil input to refineries rose a steady 2.8% y/y in the four weeks ended July 12, about the same as during the previous four-week period.
Gasoline inventories rose 6.7% y/y in the week of July 12 after rising 4.7% y/y in the prior week. Inventories of residual fuel oil fell 6.2% y/y after declining 10.1% y/y in the previous week. Crude oil inventories, including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, rose 1.2% y/y in the week of July 12 following a 1.7% y/y rise in the prior week.
Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories increased w/w to 25.5 days in the week ended July 12 and reversed the prior week’s decline to 24.7 days. The recent low was 23.4 days in the week of June 30, 2023. Crude oil inventories eased to 26.1 days in the week of July 12 from 26.5 days in the prior week. These compare to a recent high of 31.9 days in the week of March 3, 2023 and a low of 25.0 days in the week of September 1, 2023.
These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U. S. Department of Energy. The price and supply/demand data can be found in Haver’s WEEKLY and USENERGY databases.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
