U.S. Energy Prices Weaken in Latest Week
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Gasoline prices are lowest since early this year.
- Crude oil price reverses two-week gain.
- Natural gas prices drop sharply.
Retail gasoline prices for all grades slipped to $3.27 per gallon (-10.7% y/y) in the week ended October 21 from $3.29 in the prior week, the lowest price since the first week of February. These compare to a high of $3.79 per gallon in the fourth week of April. The all-time high was $5.11 in the second week of June 2022. The prices of on-highway diesel fuel declined to an average $3.55 per gallon (-21.8% y/y) last week versus $3.63 per gallon in the prior week. A recent low of $3.77 per gallon occurred in the week ended July 3, 2023 while the high was $5.81 per gallon in the third week of June 2022.
The average price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell to $70.94 per barrel (-19.4% y/y) in the week ended October 18 from an average $75.07 in the prior week. It remained well above its low of $69.37 per barrel in the week of June 30, 2023, but below a high of $91.45 in the week of September 29, 2023. The all-time high was reached in the week of July 4, 2008 at $142.46 per barrel. Yesterday, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil was $70.56 per barrel. The price of European Brent crude oil declined to $74.58 per barrel (-19.3% y/y) in the week ended October 18 from $79.34 in the prior week. The price of Brent has recently ranged from a low of $73.55 in the week ended June 30, 2023 to a high of $127.40 in the week ended June 10, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $73.29 per barrel.
Natural gas prices declined to an average of $2.15/mmbtu (-24.8% y/y) in the week ended October 18 compared to $2.40/mmbtu in the prior week. These were up from a mid-March low of $1.40 and a high of $3.20 averaged in the week of October 13, 2023. Yesterday, the price of natural gas stood at $1.76/mmbtu.
Gasoline demand rose 5.4% y/y in the four weeks ended October 11 after rising 5.4% y/y in the four weeks ended October 4. Demand for all petroleum products rose 2.8% y/y after improving 2.9% y/y in the prior four-week period. Crude oil input to refineries rose 1.8% y/y in the four weeks ended October 11 after rising 1.5% y/y in the previous four-week period.
Gasoline inventories fell 4.7% y/y in the week of October 11 following a 4.8% y/y drop in the prior week. Inventories of residual fuel oil fell 8.9% y/y after declining 12.9% y/y in the previous week. Crude oil inventories, including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, increased 4.3% y/y in the week of October 11 following a 3.9% y/y decline one week earlier.
Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories dipped to 23.6 days in the week of October 11 versus 23.8 days in the prior week. The recent low was 23.4 days in the week of June 30, 2023. Crude oil inventories were little changed at 26.5 days of supply in the week of October 11 versus 26.4 days in the prior week. These compare to a recent high of 31.9 days in the week of March 3, 2023 and a low of 25.0 days in the week of September 1, 2023.
These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price and supply/demand data can be found in Haver’s WEEKLY & USENERGY database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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