U.S. Existing Home Sales Decline to Six-Month Low in June

Sales of existing homes weakened 5.4% (-5.4% y/y) during June to 3.89 million units (SAAR) after declining 0.7% during May to an unrevised 4.11 million units and an unrevised 4.14 million in April. Sales were at the lowest level since December. The decline came as 30-year fixed rate mortgages averaged 6.92% last month. They have since fallen to 6.77% according to Freddie Mac. Sales remained increased from the low of 3.85 million in October 2023 but were below the September 2005 high of 7.26 million. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected June sales of 3.99 million units. The sales figures are based on closings of sales signed in earlier months.

The median price of all existing homes (NSA) increased 2.3% in June (4.1% y/y) to $426,900 after rising to $417,200 in May. Prices have risen for five consecutive months and are increased from $222,000 ten years earlier. The median price of an existing single-family home increased 2.4% (4.1% y/y) in June to a record $432,700 after rising 2.7% in May. The median price for condos & co-ops increased 0.8% (2.6%) to $371,700, after rising 1.1% in May. By region, existing home prices ranged from $629,800 (3.5% y/y) in the West to $521,500 (9.7% y/y) in the Northeast to $373,000 (1.7% y/y) in the South and to $327,100 (5.5% y/y) in the Midwest.

Single-family home sales declined 5.1% (-4.3% y/y) last month to 3.52 million units, the fourth straight month of decline. Sales were 39.8% below their high of 5.85 million in October 2020. Condo and co-op sales fell 7.5% (-14.0% y/y) to 370,000 following three months at 400,000. Sales have declined 50% since the January 2021 high of 740,000.

During June, sales weakened 5.9% (-6.9% y/y) in the South to 1.76 million following three months of decline. In the Northeast, sales fell 2.1% (-6.0% y/y) to 470,000 after holding steady in May. Sales in the Midwest declined 8.0% (-6.1% y/y) to 920,000 after remaining unchanged in May. In the West, sales were off 2.6% (unchanged y/y) at 740,000 after holding steady in the prior month.

The number of existing homes for sale (NSA) rose 3.1% (23.4% y/y) to 1.32 million in June after rising 6.7% in May. The supply of homes on the market at the current selling rate (NSA) rose to 4.1 months from 3.7 months in May. The record low in supply of 1.6 months was reached in January, 2022. These figures date back to January 1999.

The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability are compiled by the National Association of Realtors. The data on single-family home sales extend back to February 1968. Total sales and price data and regional sales can be found in Haver's USECON database. Regional price and affordability data and national inventory data are available in the REALTOR database. Mortgage interest rates can be found in the WEEKLY database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, reported in the AS1REPNA database.

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