U.S. Existing Home Sales Fall in January Following Three Straight M/M Gains
Summary
- Existing home sales -4.9% (+2.0% y/y) to 4.08 mil. in Jan.; +2.9% (+9.7% y/y) to 4.29. mil. in Dec.
- Sales patterns mostly decline, w/ elevated home prices and high mortgage rates.
- Median sales price decreases to $396,900, the lowest level since March ’24.
Existing home sales dropped 4.9% m/m (+2.0% y/y) to a lower-than-expected 4.08 million units (SAAR) in January after increases of 2.9% to 4.29 million in December (+2.2%; 4.24 mil. initially) and 3.5% to 4.17 million in November (+4.8%; 4.15 mil. previously), data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) showed. The January reading was the first m/m fall since September and the lowest level in three months. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected January sales of 4.13 million units. The January sales drop accompanied an increase last month in the effective 30-year mortgage interest rate to an average 6.96%, the highest since May 2024, from 6.72% in December. Sales reached a peak of 6.60 million in January 2021, down 38.2% since then. The sales figures are based on closings of sales signed over the past couple of months.
Existing single-family home sales slid 5.2% (+2.2% y/y) to 3.68 million units in January after a 2.6% increase to 3.88 million in December, registering the first m/m slide in four months and the lowest level since October. Sales of condos and co-ops fell 2.4% (0.0% y/y) to 400,000, the first m/m fall since September, following a 5.1% December rise to 410,000.
By region, sales patterns mostly dropped in January. Sales in the West decreased 7.4% (+1.4% y/y) to 750,000 in January, the lowest level since August, reversing a 5.2% gain in December. Sales in the South fell 6.2% (0.0% y/y) to 1.83 million after a 3.2% December rise and sales in the Northeast fell 5.7% (+4.2% y/y) to 500,000 following a 3.9% December increase; both posted a three-month low and the first m/m fall since September. Meanwhile, sales in the Midwest held steady m/m (+5.3% y/y) at 1.0 million units in January following a 3.1% November increase.
The median price of all existing homes (NSA) slid 1.7% (+4.8% y/y) to $396,900 in January on top of a 0.2% decline to $403,700 in December, registering the sixth m/m slide in seven months and the lowest level since March 2024. Prices remained below a high of $426,900 in June 2024. Prices fell m/m in the Midwest (-2.2%), South (-1.4%) and Northeast (-0.7%) in January; virtually unchanged m/m in the West. The median price of an existing single-family home fell 1.6% (+5.0% y/y) to $402,000 in January from $408,500 in December, posting the sixth m/m decline in seven months and the lowest level since March 2024. The median price of condos and co-ops decreased 2.6% (+2.9% y/y) to $349,500 in January, down for the sixth month in seven and the lowest level since February 2024, from $358,900 in December.
The number of existing homes for sale (NSA) rose 3.5% (16.8% y/y) to 1.18 million units in January, the first m/m rise since October, following a 14.3% decrease to 1.14 million in December. The supply of homes on the market at the current selling rate (NSA) rebounded to 3.5 months from 3.2 months in December. A high of 4.2 months was in September 2024; the record low in supply of 1.6 months was in January 2022.
The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability are compiled by the National Association of Realtors. The data on single-family home sales extend back to February 1968. Total sales and price data and regional sales can be found in Haver's USECON database. Regional price and affordability data and national inventory data are available in the REALTOR database. Mortgage interest rates can be found in the WEEKLY database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, reported in the AS1REPNA database.
Winnie Tapasanun
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has 20+ years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
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