U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Continue on Downward Path in Latest Week
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Gasoline prices plumb another seven-month low.
- Crude oil prices continue to weaken.
- Natural gas prices improve slightly.
Retail gasoline prices for all grades declined to $3.31 per gallon (-17.3% y/y) in the week ended September 16 from $3.36 per gallon in the previous week. Prices were below the late-April high of $3.79 per gallon and at the lowest level since the first week of February. They also stood well below the all-time high of $5.11 in the week ended June 13, 2022. Prices are increased, however, versus the low of $3.18 per gallon in the third week of December. Retail prices for on-highway diesel fuel declined to $3.53 per gallon (-23.9% y/y) last week compared to $3.56 in the prior week. These prices reached a high of $4.63 per gallon in the third week of September of last year.
The average price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil weakened to $68.26 per barrel (-23.4% y/y) in the week ended September 13 after falling to $69.55 per barrel in the prior week. Prices roughly equaled the lowest level in the last week of May 2021 and were lower than the $91.45 high in the last week of September 2023. They peaked at $142.46 per barrel in the week of July 4, 2008. Yesterday, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil was $70.09 per barrel. The price of European Brent crude oil fell to $72.10 per barrel (-23.2% y/y) in the week ended September 13 compared to $75.25 in the prior week. The price of Brent has recently ranged from a low of $73.55 in the week ended June 30, 2023 to a high of $127.40 in the week ended June 10, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $73.96 per barrel.
Natural gas prices improved to an average $2.13/mmbtu (-21.4% y/y) in the week ended September 13 compared to $2.04 in the prior week. Prices recently touched a high of $2.73/ mmbtu in the second week of June and they remained above their low of $1.40/mmbtu in the second week of March. Prices reached a high of $9.56/mmbtu averaged in the last week of August 2022. Yesterday, the price of natural gas was $2.23/mmbtu.
Gasoline demand increased 0.9% y/y in the four weeks ended September 6 after improving by the same amount in the four weeks ended August 30. This compares to a high of 4.2% y/y growth at the end of July. Demand for all petroleum products weakened 2.2% y/y in the last four weeks after falling 1.6% y/y in the previous period. Crude oil input to refineries rose 0.6% y/y in the four weeks ended September 6 after a 0.3% y/y increase during the previous four-week period.
Gasoline inventories rose 0.6% y/y in the week of September 6 after rising 2.1% y/y in the prior week. Inventories of residual fuel oil fell 6.1% y/y after declining 2.3% y/y in the previous week. Crude oil inventories, including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, rose 3.6% y/y in the week of September 6 after increasing 4.0% in the prior week.
Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories were 24.7 days in the week ended September 6 following 24.0 days one week earlier. The recent low was 23.4 days in the week of June 30, 2023. Crude oil inventories eased to 24.9 days in the week of September 4 from 25.0 days in the prior week. These compare to a recent high of 31.9 days in the week of March 3, 2023 and a low of 25.0 days in the week of September 1, 2023.
These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U. S. Department of Energy. The price and supply/demand data can be found in Haver’s WEEKLY and USENERGY databases.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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