U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Fall in Latest Week as Natural Gas Prices Jump

Retail gasoline prices for all grades declined to $3.30 per gallon (-16.0% y/y) in the week ended September 30 after holding at $3.31 per gallon. Prices were below the late-April high of $3.79 per gallon and at the lowest level since the first week of February. They also stood well below the all-time high of $5.11 in the week ended June 13, 2022. Prices are increased, however, versus the low of $3.18 per gallon in the third week of December. Retail prices for on-highway diesel fuel remained at $3.54 per gallon (-22.8% y/y). These prices reached a high of $4.63 per gallon in the third week of September of last year.

The average price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell to $69.84 per barrel (-23.6% y/y) in the week ended September 27 after rising to $71.77 per barrel in the prior week. Prices were lower than the $91.45 high in the last week of September 2023. They peaked at $142.46 per barrel in the week of September 20. Yesterday, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil was $68.17 per barrel. The price of European Brent crude oil eased to $74.07 per barrel (-22.5% y/y) in the week ended September 27 after rising to $74.98 in the prior week. The price of Brent has recently ranged from a low of $73.55 in the week ended June 30, 2023 to a high of $127.40 in the week ended June 10, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $72.35 per barrel.

Natural gas prices rose sharply to an average $2.56/mmbtu (-3.8% y/y) in the week ended September 27 from $2.26 in the prior week. Prices recently touched a high of $2.73/ mmbtu in the second week of June and they remained above their low of $1.40/mmbtu in the second week of March. Prices reached a high of $9.56/mmbtu averaged in the last week of August 2022. Yesterday, the price of natural gas moved higher to $2.65/mmbtu.

Gasoline demand increased 2.1% y/y in the four weeks ended September 20 after improving 1.1% in the prior four weeks. This compares to a high of 4.2% y/y growth at the end of July. Demand for all petroleum products weakened 1.4% y/y in the last four weeks after falling 2.7% y/y in the previous period. Crude oil input to refineries rose 1.1% y/y in the four weeks ended September 20 after a 1.0% y/y increase during the previous four-week period.

Gasoline inventories eased 0.2% y/y in the week of September 20 after rising 1.0% y/y in the prior week. Inventories of residual fuel oil fell 13.7% y/y after declining 7.4% y/y in the previous week. Crude oil inventories, including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, rose 3.6% y/y in the week of September 20 after increasing 3.7% y/y in the prior week.

Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories stood at 24.9 days in the week ended September 20 compared to 25.0 days one week earlier. The recent low was 23.4 days in the week of June 30, 2023. Crude oil inventories slipped to 24.8 days in the week of September 20. These compare to a recent high of 31.9 days in the week of March 3, 2023 and a low of 25.0 days in the week of September 1, 2023.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U. S. Department of Energy. The price and supply/demand data can be found in Haver’s WEEKLY and USENERGY databases.