U.S. Gasoline Prices Continue to Fall
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Gasoline and diesel fuel costs decline.
- Crude oil prices are fairly steady.
- Natural gas prices weaken.
Retail gasoline prices fell last week to an average $3.71 per gallon (-7.1% y/y) for all grades from $3.81 in the prior week. It was the lowest price since the third week of July. Prices have ranged between $3.20 and $5.11 for the last year. The retail price for on-highway diesel fuel declined to $4.44 per gallon (-16.8% y/y) last week. The latest price was increased from a low of $3.77 in early-July.
The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil of $85.27 per barrel (-3.9% y/y) in the week ended October 13 changed little from an average of $85.49 per barrel in the prior week. These were off their high of $91.45 in the week prior. It was the lowest price in six weeks, but remained significantly above the late-June low of $69.37. It remains below the high of $120.46 in the week of June 10, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $86.66 per barrel. Brent crude prices of $90.48 per barrel (-4.4% y/y) last week compared to $90.33 in the prior week. It was below the earlier week’s high of $95.61. The recent low for Brent was $73.89 in the first week of June 2023, and the recent high was $127.40 in the week of June 10, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $90.99 per barrel.
Natural gas prices strengthened to an average $3.20/mmbtu (-49.1% y/y) in the week of October 13, 2023 after rising to $2.91 in the previous week. It was the highest price in nine months. It reached a low of $1.93 in the first week of June. Yesterday, the price was $2.98/mmbtu.
In the four weeks ended October 6, gasoline demand fell 3.6% from a year earlier after falling 5.0% y/y in the prior four-week period. Demand for all petroleum products increased 0.1% y/y versus 1.7% y/y in the previous four weeks. Crude oil input to refineries fell 0.9% in the latest four weeks from a year ago, after rising 1.1% y/y in the prior four weeks.
Gasoline inventories rose 7.7% y/y in the October 6 week after rising 9.4% y/y in the previous week. Residual fuel oil inventories fell 4.8% y/y after declining 4.3% y/y in the previous week. Crude oil inventories, including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, fell 8.5% from a year ago after a 9.5% y/y decrease in the prior week.
Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories in the week of October 6 stood at 26.8 days versus 27.2 days in the prior week. The recent high was 29.7 days in the third week of January and the recent low was 23.4 days in the last week of June. The supply of crude oil edged up to 26.9 days. The recent high was 31.9 days at the beginning of March.
These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price and supply/demand data can be found in Haver’s WEEKLY database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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