U.S. Gasoline Prices Fall Further
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Gasoline costs decline, but diesel fuel rises.
- Crude oil prices move higher.
- Natural gas prices weaken.
Retail gasoline prices fell last week to an average $3.66 per gallon (-5.8% y/y) for all grades from $3.71 in the prior week. Prices have ranged between $3.20 and $5.11 for the last year. Conversely, the retail price for on-highway diesel fuel rose to $4.55 per gallon (-14.9% y/y) last week. The latest price was increased from a low of $3.77 in early-July.
The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose to $87.95 per barrel (3.2% y/y) in the week ended October 20 from an average of $85.27 per barrel in the prior week. These remained below the high of $91.45 in the last week of September and was significantly above the late-June low of $69.37. Prices remain below the high of $120.46 in the week of June 10, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $85.49 per barrel. Brent crude prices increased to $92.47 per barrel (1.6% y/y) last week compared to $90.48 in the prior week. It was below the earlier week’s high of $95.61. The recent low for Brent was $73.89 in the first week of June 2023 and the recent high was $127.40 in the week of June 10, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $91.88 per barrel.
Natural gas prices retreated to an average $2.86/mmbtu (-47.8% y/y) in the week of October 20, 2023 after rising to $3.20 in the previous week. Prices reached a high of $9.56/mmbtu in the in the last week of August 2022 and a low of $1.93 in the first week of June. Yesterday, the price was $2.65/mmbtu.
In the four weeks ended October 13, gasoline demand fell 3.1% from a year earlier after falling 3.6% y/y in the prior four-week period. Demand for all petroleum products weakened 0.9% y/y little change y/y in the previous four weeks. Crude oil input to refineries fell 1.1% y/y in the latest four weeks, after declining 0.9% y/y in the prior period.
Gasoline inventories rose 6.7% y/y in the October 13 week after rising 7.7% y/y in the previous week. Residual fuel oil inventories fell 7.8% y/y after declining 4.8% y/y in the previous week. Crude oil inventories, including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, fell 8.5% y/y, the same as in the prior week.
Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories in the week of October 13 stood at 26.1 days versus 26.8 days in the prior week. The recent high was 29.7 days in the third week of January and the recent low was 23.4 days in the last week of June. The supply of crude oil edged up to 27.0 days. The recent high was 31.9 days at the beginning of March.
These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price and supply/demand data can be found in Haver’s WEEKLY & USENERGY databases.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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