U.S. Goods Int’l Trade Deficit Increases to Record in December
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Deficit widening subtracts substantially from real GDP growth.
- Exports decline to lowest level since November 2023.
- Import surge is broad-based.
The advance estimate of the U.S. international trade deficit in goods deepened to $122.1 billion in December after rising to $103.5 billion in November, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The December deficit was deeper than a $106.0 billion deficit expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The deficit had reached a peak of $120.7 billion in March 2022. Widening of the goods trade deficit to $323.1 during Q4 from $305.8 billion in Q3 likely subtracted more from Q4 real GDP growth than the 0.4 percentage point subtraction in Q3'24 as the monthly deficit averaged $107.7 billion versus $101.9 in Q3'24.
Total goods exports declined 4.5% (-1.6% y/y) in December, the third decline in the last four months, reversing a 3.3% increase in November. The decline reflected a 6.7% drop (-8.7% y/y) in automotive vehicles & parts, an 8.5% (-7.3% y/y) decline in nonauto consumer goods and a 2.6% drop (+2.4% y/y) in exports of capital goods excluding autos. Industrial supplies & materials exports fell 4.8% (-5.6% y/y) while exports of other goods dropped 6.1% (+26.6% y/y). Exports of foods, feeds & beverages 0.9% (+3.5% y/y).
Total imports of goods rose 3.9% (12.4% y/y) in December, up for the third month in the last four, following a 4.3% rise in November. The rise in December reflected an 18.9% (20.4% y/y) increase in industrial supplies & materials, a 1.6% decline (+14.8% y/y) in foods, feeds & beverages and a 3.1% rise (14.1% y/y) in nonauto consumer goods. Imports of capital goods excluding autos also rose 1.7% (16.3% y/y) but automotive vehicles & parts imports fell 5.5% (-5.8% y/y).
The advance international trade data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is in AS1REPNA.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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