U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Deepens in May
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Largest goods trade deficit since May ’22.
- Export decline reverses April increase.
- Imports fall moderately following April surge.
The advance estimate of the U.S. international trade deficit in goods widened to $100.6 billion in May from $98.0 billion in April, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. A $96.0 deficit had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The deficit reached a peak of $120.72 billion in March 2022. In Q1'24, the goods trade deficit widened to $277.73 billion, the largest since Q2'23, after rising to $264.6 billion in Q4'23. The trade deficit subtracted 0.65 percentage point from real GDP growth in Q1'24 after having added 0.25 percentage point in Q4'23.
Total exports declined 1.9% (+2.4% y/y) in May following a 0.4% April rise. The decline reflected a 3.9% fall (+1.3% y/y) in industrial supplies exports which followed a 2.6% drop. Auto exports fell 2.1% (-6.7% y/y) after rising 6.0% while foods feeds & beverage exports were off 1.1% (+3.0% y/y), off for the third straight month. Capital goods exports eased 0.5% (+5.3% y/y) after increasing 3.0% in April. To the upside, nonauto consumer goods exports rose 0.8% (2.9% y/y) after increasing 3.7% in April.
Total imports fell 0.7% (+5.2% y/y) in May following a 3.2% April increase. Auto imports fell 3.5% (+7.2% y/y) after they rose 11.3% in April. Imports of nonauto consumer goods declined 3.4% (+3.2% y/y), after falling 1.6% in April. Capital goods imports declined 0.8% (+8.3% y/y) following a 4.0% increase in April. Offsetting these declines, industrial supplies imports rose 2.6% (1.0% y/y) after rising 3.4% April. Imports of foods, feeds & beverages gained 0.1% (10.2% y/y) after falling 0.7% in April.
The advance international trade data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is in AS1REPNA.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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