U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Narrows in May
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Deficit average in Q2 suggests moderate subtraction from GDP growth.
- Exports decline modestly following April slump.
- Imports shortfall fall back again.
The advance estimate of the U.S. international trade deficit in goods narrowed to $91.1 billion in May after widening to $97.1 billion in April, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. A $92.0 billion deficit had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The deficit averaged $94.1 billion so far in Q2 versus $88.0 billion during Q1.
Total exports fell 0.6% (-7.5% y/y) in May after a 5.3% April decline. It was the third decline in four months. Exports of foods, feeds & beverages dropped 14.2% (-21.1% y/y) while industrial supplies & materials exports slumped 3.0% in May (-21.8% y/y). To the upside, auto & parts exports gained 8.7% (16.3% y/y) and nonauto consumer goods exports rose 4.3% (2.7% y/y). Capital goods exports rose 1.1% (5.1% y/y) while exports of other goods rose 2.4% in May (14.4% y/y).
The value of imports declined 2.7% in May (-8.8% y/y) and reversed the 2.1% April rise. It was the third decline in four months. Imports of nonauto consumer goods fell 7.3% (-16.6% y/y). Also falling, industrial supplies & materials imports fell 5.9% (-22.1% y/y) in May as foods, feeds & beverage imports weakened 3.0% (-11.0% y/y). Working higher, imports of capital goods imports rose 1.3% (0.5% y/y) while auto imports improved 0.9% (11.7% y/y). Imports of other goods rose 6.7% in May (11.3% y/y).
The advance international trade data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is in AS1REPNA.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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