U.S. Government Budget Deficit Deepens in FY 2024
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Personal income tax receipts remain strong.
- Corporate tax payments surge.
- Social Security spending fuels outlay growth.
During FY 2024, the U.S. Treasury Department reported a U.S. government budget deficit of $1.833 trillion compared to a $1.695 trillion deficit in FY 2023. It was the third largest deficit on record. For September alone, the government actually ran a budget surplus of $64.3 billion, which compared to a deficit of $170.7 billion twelve months earlier. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a $16 billion surplus in September.
Overall revenues last fiscal year increased 10.8% y/y as individual income tax receipts rose 11.5% y/y. The level of corporate tax receipts increased 26.3% y/y for the full fiscal year. Social insurance revenues increased a lessened 5.9% y/y and excise taxes increased 33.8% y/y in FY’24. Customs duties fell 4.1% y/y, continuing the decline since late-2022.
Federal government outlays increased 10.1% y/y in FY’24 after a 2.2% decline in FY’23. Defense spending rose 6.5% y/y, about as it did in FY’23. Social Security outlays rose 7.9% y/y after rising 11.1% y/y in FY’23. Interest payments soared 33.7% y/y in FY’24 after a 38.7% rise a year earlier. Health program spending rose 2.5% y/y after declining 2.8% y/y in FY’23 while Medicare payments rose 3.1% y/y. Income security outlays fell 13.3% y/y compared to a 10.6% y/y decline in FY’23.
Haver's data on Federal Government receipts & outlays are contained in USECON. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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