U.S. Government Budget Deficit Deepens So Far in FY 2025
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Personal income tax receipts weaken.
- Corporate tax payments roughly halve y/y.
- Social Security spending fuels outlay growth.
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a U.S. government budget deficit of $624.2 billion budget deficit for the first two months of FY 2025 after a $380.6 billion deficit for the first two months of FY’24. For November alone, the government ran a budget deficit of $366.8 billion, which compared to a deficit of $314.0 billion twelve months earlier. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a $356.5 billion deficit in November.
Overall revenues this fiscal year so far declined 7.3% y/y as individual income tax receipts fell 11.6% y/y. The level of corporate tax receipts nearly halved y/y. Social insurance revenues increased 7.4% y/y and excise taxes increased 34.0% y/y in FY’25. Customs duties rose 6.1% y/y in the first two months of FY’15.
Federal government outlays increased 18.3% y/y in early FY’25 after a 16.7% rise early in FY’24. Defense spending rose 13.7% y/y, as it did early in FY’24. Social Security outlays rose 6.9% y/y after rising 12.0% y/y in FY’24. Interest payments rose 8.0% y/y in FY’25 after a 63.7% rise a year earlier. Health program spending rose 12.0% y/y after holding steady early in FY’24 while Medicare payments doubled y/y. Income security outlays rose 31.8% y/y compared to a 15.1% y/y decline in the first two months of FY’24.
Haver's data on Federal Government receipts & outlays are contained in USECON. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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