U.S. Housing Starts Weaken in September
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Both single and multi-family starts decline.
- Regional declines remain mixed.
- Building permits improve modestly.
Total housing starts fell 8.1% (-7.7% y/y) during September to 1.439 million units (SAAR) from 1.566 million in August, revised from 1.575 million. Starts in July were revised to 1.377 million from 1.404 million. Starts overall were 20.3% lower last month than the April 2022 peak. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 1.47 million starts in September.
Single-family starts weakened 4.7% (-18.5% y/y) in September to 892,000 after rising 4.0% to 936,000 in August. Single-family starts were 31.8% below their December 2020 peak. Multi-family starts declined 13.2% (+17.6% y/y) to 547,000 after rising 32.1% in August. They were 13.4% below the April 2022 peak.
Housing starts remined regionally mixed. In the South, housing starts declined 13.7% (-8.8% y/y) to 738,000 following a 20.8% August increase. Starts in the Northeast fell 12.5% (+15.7% y/y) to 147,000 after holding steady in August. Starts in the Midwest weakened 2.7% (-10.8% y/y) in September to 182,000 after rising 16.1% in the prior month. Working 4.5% higher (-11.2% y/y) to 377,000 were starts in the West after a 4.7% August increase.
Building permits improved 1.4% (-3.2% y/y) in September to 1.564 million after falling 8.5% in August. Single-family permits weakened -3.1% (-17.3% y/y) to 872,000. It was the seventh consecutive monthly decline. Multi-family permits increased 7.8% (+23.4% y/y) to 692,000 after falling 14.7% in August.
The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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