U.S. Import and Export Prices Decline
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Import price decline led by large drop in fuel prices.
- Excluding fuels, import prices decline minimally.
- Export prices fall sharply.
Import prices fell 0.6% during May (-5.9% y/y) after rising 0.3% In April, revised from 0.4%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Export prices tumbled 1.9% (-10.1% y/y) after slipping 0.1% in April, revised from +0.2%. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.6% decline in import prices and a 0.4% fall in export prices in May.
The decline in import prices reflected a 6.4% fall (-35.4% y/y) in imported fuels & lubricant prices which followed a 3.7% increase in April. Prices of imports excluding fuels eased 0.1% last month (-1.6% y/y) after holding steady in April. Elsewhere, price changes were mixed. Nonfuel import prices eased 0.1% (-1.6% y/y) reflecting a 1.1% decline (-0.5% y/y) in food, feeds & beverage prices. Nonauto consumer goods prices held steady (-0.1% y/y) in May. To the upside, motor vehicle & parts prices rose 0.4% (+1.9% y/y) while capital good prices edged 0.1% higher last month (0.9% y/y).
The export price decline in May was paced by a 4.4% decline (-22.8% y/y) in industrial supplies & materials prices. Agricultural prices overall fell 2.1% (-8.1% y/y) as foods, feeds & beverage prices retreated similarly. Prices of exported nonagricultural commodities weakened 1.8% (-10.5% y/y). Nonauto consumer goods prices rose 0.2% (2.7% y/y) and capital goods export prices increased 0.1% (2.4% y/y). Prices for motor vehicles & parts also rose 0.1% (2.7% y/y).
The import and export price series can be found in Haver’s USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
