U.S. Import and Export Prices Decline in September
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Import price decline led by oil; elsewhere most prices firm.
- Export price weakness led by costs of industrial supplies.
Pricing pressure from the foreign trade sector eased last month. Import prices weakened 0.4% (-0.1% y/y) in September following a 0.2% August decline, revised from -0.3%. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.3% decline. Export prices declined 0.7% (-2.1% y/y) last month after falling 0.9% in August, revised from -0.7%. The Action Economic Forecast Survey expected a 0.6% drop.
The monthly decline in import prices reflected a 7.0% drop (-17.3% y/y) in fuels & lubricants prices which came after a 2.9% decline in August. Nonfuel prices, however, edged 0.1% higher for the third straight month. Their y/y increase has risen to 1.8%, up from -1.9% in April of 2023. Auto import prices improved 0.2% (2.7% y/y), the same as in August. Nonauto consumer goods prices increased 0.2% (0.8% y/y). The gain followed three straight monthly declines. Capital goods prices held steady (+0.4% y/y) after a 0.2% increase. Weakening, however, were foods, feeds & beverage prices which declined 1.5% (+3.8% y/y) after rising 0.2% in August.
The weakening in export prices in September reflected a 0.9% drop (-1.8% y/y) in nonagricultural export prices which was the fourth decline in the last five months. A 0.6% rise (-5.3% y/y) in agricultural product prices offset some of this weakness. Leading the decline, industrial supplies & materials prices fell 2.4% (-6.3% y/y) after a 1.6% August drop. Motor vehicle & parts prices edged 0.1% lower (+2.9% y/y) and reversed the 0.1% rise in August. Offsetting these declines, nonauto consumer goods prices increased 0.3% (0.9% y/y) following a 0.1% improvement in August. Capital goods prices rose 0.2% (1.6% y/y) after a 0.2% dip.
Each of these monthly trade price numbers are not seasonally adjusted. The import and export price series can be found in Haver’s USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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