Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics
USA
| Jul 14 2023

U.S. Import and Export Prices Fall in June

Summary
  • Prices of non-oil imports decline broadly.
  • Imported fuel prices rise after sharp decline.
  • Export price movement is mixed.

Import prices fell 0.2% during June after declining 0.4% in May, revised from -0.6%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The 6.1% y/y decline in import prices was the largest since May 2020. Export prices weakened 0.9% after an unrevised 1.9% decline in May. The 12.0% y/y fall was a record for the series which dates back to 1990. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.3% decline in import prices and a 0.3% weakening in export prices in June.

Last month, fuels & lubricants prices rose 0.8% (-36.8% y/y) after falling 3.9% in May. Prices excluding fuels fell 0.4% (-1.4% y/y) after holding steady in May. These price declines included a 0.3% fall (-1.0% y/y) in foods, feeds & beverage prices which followed a 1.3% May drop. Nonauto consumer goods prices also were off 0.3% (+0.1% y/y) in June after a 0.1% improvement. Easing 0.1% last month (+1.6% y/y) were prices of motor vehicle & parts following a 0.3% May rise. Capital goods prices also slipped 0.1% in June (+0.6% y/y) after holding steady in May.

The export price decline in June reflected a 1.6% fall (-9.8% y/y) in agricultural prices overall. It followed a 2.4% May drop. Nonagricultural export prices fell 0.9% (-12.4% y/y) after dropping 1.9% in May. Foods, feeds & beverage prices retreated 1.8% in June (-9.5% y/y) after falling 2.4% in May. Nonauto consumer goods prices edged 0.1% higher (2.7% y/y) after rising 0.2% but capital goods export prices increased 0.2% (2.5% y/y) after edging 0.1% higher in May. Prices for motor vehicles & parts also rose 0.1% (2.5% y/y) for a second straight month.

The import and export price series can be found in Haver’s USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.

  • Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

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