U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Decline
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Fall in initial claims last week follows upward revisions.
- Insured unemployment continues rising trend.
- Insured jobless rate steadies.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 228,000 (+6.5% y/y) in the week ended March 31 from 246,000 in the prior week, revised from 198,000. The figures back to 2018 were revised to reflect updated seasonal factors and series estimation. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 200,000 initial claims for the latest week. The four-week moving average of initial claims fell to 237,750.
The number of continuing weeks claimed in the week ended March 25 rose to 1.823 million (11.6% y/y) from 1.817 million in the prior week, revised from 1.689 million. The four-week moving average of continuing claims increased to 1.804 million, the highest level since December 2021.
In the week ended March 25, the insured rate of unemployment held steady at 1.3%. The prior week’s figure was revised from 1.2% and the latest figure was increased from 0.9% in the first week of October 2022. This figure matched the record low for the series.
In the week ended March 18, the total number of continued weeks claimed in all unemployment insurance programs was 1.905 million (+10.6% y/y) versus 1.907 million in the prior week. This total includes federal employees, newly discharged veterans, extended benefits and other specialized programs and is not seasonally adjusted. Claims in the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation are no longer included in the main Labor Department press release, as both programs have expired.
The insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary across states. The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending March 18 were in New Jersey (2.59%), California (2.38%), Rhode Island (2.35%), Massachusetts (2.34%), and Minnesota (2.19%). The lowest rates were in Virginia (0.32%), Kansas (0.37%), Florida (0.41%), North Carolina (0.41%), Tennessee (0.44%) and Alabama (0.47%). Other large state rates include Illinois (1.91%), New York (1.90%), Pennsylvania (1.65%) and Texas (0.99%). These state rates are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment claims going back to 1967 are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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