U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Rise
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Initial claims remain higher than January.
- Continuing claims ease.
- Insured unemployment rate declines.
Initial unemployment insurance claims rose to 242,000 (11.0% y/y) during the week ended April 29 and reversed the prior week’s decline to 229,000, revised from 230,000. Expectations were for 240,000 initial claims in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The four-week moving average of initial claims of 239,000 compared to a late-January low of 200,000.
The number of continuing weeks claimed in the week ended April 22 fell to 1.805 million (20.5% y/y) from 1.843 during the prior week, revised from 1.858 million. The four-week moving average of continuing claims eased to 1.828 million from 1.833 million, though it remained up from 1.296 million late in September of last year.
In the week ended April 22, the insured rate of unemployment fell to 1.2% from an unrevised 1.3% in the prior week. These levels are increased from the 0.9% low early in October 2022, which matched the record low for the series which runs back to 1971.
In the week ended April 15, the total number of continued weeks claimed in all unemployment insurance programs eased to 1.800 million (+20.4% y/y), compared to 1.815 million the week before. It was down from a high of 2.000 million late in February. This total includes federal employees, newly discharged veterans, extended benefits and other specialized programs and is not seasonally adjusted. Claims in the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation are no longer included in the main Labor Department press release.
The insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary across states. The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending April 15 were in California (2.44%), New Jersey (2.43%), Rhode Island (2.12%), Massachusetts (1.95%) and Minnesota (1.82%). The lowest rates were in Virginia (0.32%), Kansas (0.31%), Nebraska (0.35%), Tennessee (0.40%), Florida (0.41%), and North Carolina (0.41%). Other large state rates include New York (1.82%), Illinois (1.64%), Pennsylvania (1.34%) and Texas (0.99%). These state rates are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment claims going back to 1967 are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
