U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Edge Higher in Latest Week
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Weekly claims are trending up.
- Continuing claims rise and also are trending higher.
- Insured unemployment rate is steady.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 223,000 (5.2% y/y) during the week ended March 15 from 221,000 in the prior week, revised from 220,000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 225,000 initial claims. The four-week moving average edged up to 227,000 from 226,250 and was the highest level since the first week of November.
The number of continuing unemployment insurance beneficiaries increased to 1.892 million (5.4% y/y) in the week ended March 8 from 1.859 million in the prior week. The four-week moving average rose to 1.876 million from 1.870 million in the prior week. It was the highest level since the second week of December.
The insured unemployment rate (the total number of claimants as a percent of covered employment) remained at 1.2%.
Economic conditions vary widely across states and territories. In the week ended March 1, the highest rates were in Rhode Island (2.97%), New Jersey (2.88%), Massachusetts (2.42%), Minnesota (2.50%) and California (2.39%). The lowest rates were in Florida (0.35%), Alabama (0.43%), Virginia (0.46%), Tennessee (0.54%) and North Carolina (0.55%) and Mississippi (0.57%). Rates in other notably large states include New York (1.95%), Pennsylvania (1.95%) and Texas (1.04%). These state rates are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s WEEKLY database and summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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