U.S. JOLTS: Job Openings Decline Sharply in July; Hiring Improves

Job openings declined 237,000 (-12.9% y/y) during July to 7.673 million after falling 320,000 during June and rising 311,000 in May, according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. At the lowest level since January 2021, the number of job openings have been trending downward since early-2022. The latest reading is well below the recent peak of 12.182 million reached in March 2022. The job openings rate fell to 4.6% from 4.8% in June. It remains well below a high of 7.4% in March 2022 and is the lowest since December 2020. This rate is calculated as the ratio of job openings to total nonfarm employment plus openings.

Private sector openings fell 145,000 in July (-13.7% y/y) to 6.749 million after declining 298,000 in June. The private sector job openings rate eased to 4.7% from 4.8% in June. It was 5.5% twelve months earlier and 7.9% at its peak in March 2022. The level of leisure & hospitality openings eased 0.2% (-22.0% y/y) but information openings increased 0.9% (-28.5% y/y). Private educational & health service openings weakened 10.9% (-19.0% y/y) but financial sector openings improved 0.2% (0.4% y/y). Transportation & utilities openings declined 13.2% (-29.9% y/y) while openings in professional & business services rose 13.3% (13.7% y/y). Manufacturing job openings increased 6.5% (-5.6% y/y) but construction openings fell 17.1% (-29.3% y/y). Mining & logging openings declined 4.5% (-30.0% y/y). Government sector openings declined 9.1% (-6.2% y/y).

Private sector hiring increased 5.8% in July (-3.5% y/y) to 5.185 million after falling 7.4% in June. The private sector hiring rate increased to 3.8% from 3.6% and compared to 4.0% twelve months earlier. It has been trending lower from its 7.1% high in May 2020. Leisure and hospitality hiring strengthened 20.9% (-7.9% y/y). Financial sector hiring rose 6.7% (23.7% y/y) and professional & business services jobs gained 0.8% (-8.1% y/y). Trade, transportation & utilities hiring eased 0.3% (-1.3% y/y) while educational & health services jobs rose 1.9% (-1.6% y/y). Information sector hiring weakened 1.3% both m/m and y/y. Construction sector hiring surged 14.9% (-2.1% y/y) and factory sector hiring improved 6.0% (-11.4% y/y). Government hiring declined 3.2% (-6.9% y/y) in July, reflecting a 20.5% fall (-32.6% y/y) in federal government hiring.

Total job separations rose 6.6% (-4.0% y/y) to 5.420 million in July after falling 5.8% in June. The separation rate rose to 3.4% from 3.2%. Private separations increased 6.4% (-3.8% y/y) after a 5.4% June decline. Manufacturing sector separations held steady (-14.7% y/y) but construction sector separations rose 16.3% (-9.9% y/y). Trade, transportation & utilities separations fell 4.3% (-3.5% y/y) while leisure & hospitality separations rose 13.5% (-5.5% y/y). Government sector job separations rose 9.8% (-6.9% y/y).

Private sector layoffs increased 13.3% to 1.675 million (5.1% y/y) in July led by a 55.0% jump (17.3% y/y) in the leisure & hospitality sector. Financial sector layoffs also surged 46.0% (49.0% y/y). Trade, transportation & utilities layoffs fell 6.4% (+16.4% y/y). Government layoffs rose 6.2% to 86,000, but were down 17.3% y/y. The private sector layoff rate overall rose to 1.2% and reversed the June decline to 1.1%. It has been trending sideways for a year. The government sector layoff rate was 0.4%, up from a low of 0.3% in June. Private sector quits increased 1.4% to 3.090 million (-9.4% y/y) following sharp declines in three of the prior four months. Government quits increased 12.0% to 186,000 (-8.4% y/y). The private sector quits rate was steady at a reduced 2.3%, down from a high of 3.3% in April 2022.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data are available in Haver’s USECON database.

Impact of inflation shocks on foreign exchange rates reflects central bank stature from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas can be found here.