U.S. JOLTS: Job Openings Decline Sharply in October
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Job openings post largest decline in five months; revisions indicate weakness.
- Hiring declines after two months of increase.
- Total separations rise as layoffs increase.
The U.S. labor market weakened during October as employers responded to softer economic conditions relative to strength during Q3. Job openings declined 6.6% last month (-16.6% y/y) to 8.733 million following a 1.5% September decline to 9.350 million, revised from 9.553 million. It was the lowest level of openings since March 2021 according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. The job openings rate fell to 5.3% from 5.6% in September, revised from 5.7%. It was the lowest rate since February 2021 and down from a 7.4% high in March 2022. This rate is calculated as the ratio of job openings to total nonfarm employment plus openings.
Private sector openings fell 7.6% (-18.6% y/y) to 7.746 million in October after easing 0.6% in September. The private job openings rate fell to 5.5% last month from 5.9% in both September and August. It was the lowest rate since February 2021. The decline in private openings last month was led by a 12.5% decline (-22.5% y/y) in education & health services. Leisure and hospitality followed with a 10.0% decline (-24.1% y/y). Trade, transportation & utilities opening were off 7.1% (-22.2% y/y) but professional & business services openings improved 5.6% (-7.4% y/y). Job openings in the government sector increased 1.8% (3.7% y/y).
Total hiring eased 0.3% (-4.5% y/y) during October following a 0.9% September increase, revised from 0.4%. The hiring rate slipped to 3.7% from 3.8%. It was down from a 4.6% high in November 2021. Private sector hiring fell 0.4% (-4.6% y/y) following a 1.1% September gain. This decline was paced by a 23.0% drop (-42.4% y/y) in information services and a 5.5% drop (-7.6% y/y) in trade, transportation & utilities. Factory sector employment declined 4.6% (-15.8% y/y). These declines were offset by a 21.4% rise (6.8% y/y) in construction hiring and an 8.6% increase (1.8% y/y) in professional & business services. Education & health services jobs rose 4.4% (9.5% y/y) while government sector hiring increased 1.1% (-3.9% y/y). The private sector hiring rate was also unchanged at 4.1%.
Total separations rose 0.9% (-3.4% y/y) to 5.646 million in October following a 1.6% decline in September. The rise reflected a 2.0% increase (7.7% y/y) in layoffs & discharges which followed a 4.3% decline. The layoff & discharge rate held steady at 1.0%, down from the 1.2% March high. Quits declined 0.5% last month (-10.4% y/y), the same as in September. Leisure & hospitality quits fell 7.7% last month (-13.8% y/y) but construction quits rose 25.4% (13.1% y/y).
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data are available in Haver’s USECON database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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