U.S. JOLTS Job Openings Slid Modestly in June, But Labor Market Still Tight
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Openings fell modestly, the fifth decline in past six months.
- Excess of openings over number unemployed rebounded slightly but still on downtrend.
- Hires fell for the first time in three months.
- Both quits and layoffs declined.
The number of job openings edged down 0.4% m/m (-12.6% y/y) in June, their fifth monthly decline in the past six months, to 9.582 million from a downwardly revised 9.616 million in May (previously (9.824 million) according to the Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). The decline was slightly less than market expectations, which looked for a 1.8% m/m fall to 9.65 million. The job openings rate was unchanged at 5.8% with a 0.1%-point downward revision to May. Along with the May reading this was the lowest rate since March 2021. This ratio is job openings as a percent of total nonfarm employment plus openings.
The number of job openings continued to exceed the number unemployed by a substantial amount. This excess rebounded slightly in June to 3.625 million from 3.519 million in May. However, this figure remains on a slight downtrend and well below its record 6.055 million in March 2022. Prior to the pandemic, this level had peaked at just under 1.4 million. So, the labor market, while on a softening trend, remains quite tight by historical standards.
Private sector openings edged down 44,000 (-0.5% m/m) in June with declines in every major sector except for education and health services (+123,000, +6.5% m/m). By contrast, government job openings rose 10,000 (+0.9% m/m) in June.
Total new hires fell 5.2% m/m in June to 5.905 million from 6.231 million in May (revised up marginally from 6.208 million). This was their first monthly decline in the past three months. New hiring has been on a slight downtrend over the past year and a half but remains at a monthly pace that is slightly faster than immediately prior to the pandemic. The hiring rate slipped to 3.8% in June, it lowest since April 2020. Hiring fell in both the private and government sectors. The decline in private hiring was rather widespread with monthly increases only in professional and business services (+1.6% m/m) and in leisure and hospitality (+0.2% m/m).
Total separations fell 288,000 (-4.9% m/m) in June, marginally more than reversing their 4.7% monthly increase in May. This reflected a 295,000 decrease in quits, a 19,000 decline in layoffs and a 26,000 increase in “other” separations. The total separation rate fell to 3.6% in June from 3.8% in May. The June reading tied the one in April for the lowest separation rate since January 2021. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, quits can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. After declining throughout 2022, quits have been relatively flat this year. Layoffs and discharges were on a clear uptrend earlier this year but have now declined in each of the past three months, pointing to some renewed resilience in the labor market.
Total separations fell in both the private and government sectors in June. Private-sector declines were relatively widespread across sectors with only information (+4.8% m/m) and professional and business services (+12.7% m/m) posting increases.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data are available in Haver’s USECON database.
Sandy Batten
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Sandy Batten has more than 30 years of experience analyzing industrial economies and financial markets and a wide range of experience across the financial services sector, government, and academia. Before joining Haver Analytics, Sandy was a Vice President and Senior Economist at Citibank; Senior Credit Market Analyst at CDC Investment Management, Managing Director at Bear Stearns, and Executive Director at JPMorgan. In 2008, Sandy was named the most accurate US forecaster by the National Association for Business Economics. He is a member of the New York Forecasters Club, NABE, and the American Economic Association. Prior to his time in the financial services sector, Sandy was a Research Officer at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Senior Staff Economist on the President’s Council of Economic Advisors, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the US Treasury, and Economist at the International Monetary Fund. Sandy has taught economics at St. Louis University, Denison University, and Muskingun College. He has published numerous peer-reviewed articles in a wide range of academic publications. He has a B.A. in economics from the University of Richmond and a M.A. and Ph.D. in economics from The Ohio State University.
