Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics
USA
| Jan 24 2024

U.S. Mortgage Applications Continue to Increase in Latest Week

Summary
  • Applications rise to highest level since early-May, 2023.
  • Purchase applications move up, but loans to refinance fall.
  • Long-term interest rates stay close to seven-month low.

Mortgage applications increased 3.7% (-14.8% y/y) in the week ended January 19 after strengthening 10.4% in the prior week and 9.9% in the in the first week of January. These data come from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for loans to purchase a home rose 7.5% (-17.0% y/y) last week after rising 9.2% in the week earlier and 5.6% in this year’s first week. Working the other way, applications to refinance a loan fell 7.0% (-8.5% y/y) following two weeks of strong increase.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan fell sharply to 32.7% last week from 37.5% in the week ended January 12. It was the lowest percentage in two months. The percentage of applications that were ARMs rose to 6.3% in the latest week from 5.9% in the week ended January 12. It was the highest percentage in four weeks.

The effective rate last week on a 30-year fixed-rate loan of 6.96% compared to 6.94% in the prior week and remained below the 8.12% high in mid-October. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose to 6.46% from 6.38% in the prior week. The rate on 30-year Jumbo loan rose to 7.08% in the week ended January 19 and reversed most of the prior week’s decline to 6.99%. The rate on the 5-year ARM was minimally changed at 6.41% in the latest week but was below the 7.31% high in the last week of October.

The average loan size rose 4.5% (2.3% y/y) to $377,100 in the third week of January after a rise to $360,800 in the prior week. The average size of a purchase loan rose 2.5% (2.8% y/y) to $425,100 last week after a 3.0% gain in the prior week. The average loan size to refinance a mortgage rose 2.8% (4.7% y/y) to $278,400 after a 1.2% decline in the prior week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s SURVEYS database.

  • Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

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