U.S. New Home Sales & Prices Post Firm Gains in September
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Sales rise to highest level since May 2023.
- Median sales price increase reverses earlier decline.
- Sales performance is mixed regionally.
The Census Bureau reported that new single-family home sales rose 4.1% (6.3% y/y) during September to 738,000 (SAAR) after falling 2.3% in August to 709,000, revised from 716,000. Sales rose 8.0% in July to 726,000, revised from 751,000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected new home sales of 718,000 for September. Sales were 42.2% higher than the 519,000 low in July 2022, but remained 28.4% below their peak of 1.031 million in October 2020. The rise in September sales accompanied a decline in the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage to 6.18% last month from 6.50% in August. It has since risen to 6.44% last week according to Freddie Mac.
The median sales price of a new home rose 3.7%, unchanged y/y, in September to $426,300 (NSA) after falling 3.8% to $410,900 in August. The median sales price was 7.4% below its October 2022 peak of $460,300. The average sales price of a new home increased 3.0% (-2.7% y/y) to $501,000 in September after falling 4.6% to $486,500 in August. The average price was 7.4% below its peak of $541,200 in July 2022. These sales price data are not seasonally adjusted.
New home sales were mixed m/m throughout the country in September. New home sales in the Northeast rose 21.7% (-22.2% y/y) to 28,000 after falling 30.3% in August. In the South, sales increased 5.8% (14.7% y/y) last month to 477,000 after rising 7.1% in August. Holding steady (-10.9% y/y) at 156,000 were new home sales in the West after they declined 17.9% in August. Working lower, new home sales in the Midwest weakened 2.5% (+14.9% y/y) to 77,000 after falling 3.7% in August.
The number of unsold new homes on the market in September rose 0.4% (8.0% y/y) to 470,000 following a 1.5% August increase. The seasonally adjusted months' supply of new homes for sale fell to 7.6 months in September from 7.9 months in August. It remained up from a low of 6.9 months in May 2023.
The median number of months a new home stayed on the market edged up to 2.5 months in September from 2.2 months in both August and July. The reading remained up from the record low of 1.5 months in both September and October of 2022 but down from a high of 5.1 months in March 2021. These figures date back to January 1975.
New home sales are recorded when the sales contract is signed. New home sales activity and prices are available in Haver's USECON database. The consensus expectation figure from Action Economics is available in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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