U.S. New Home Sales Ease as Prices Rise in June
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Sales fall to seven-month low.
- Median sales price recovers May decline.
- Changes are mixed throughout the country.
New single-family home sales slipped 0.6% (-7.4% y/y) to 617,000 after falling 14.9% to 621,000 in May, revised from 619,000, and rising 6.9% in April to 730,000, revised from 698,000, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Sales were 16.7% below the recent high of 741,000 in May of 2023. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected new home sales of 643,000. Sales remained 40.2% below their peak of 1.031 million in October 2020 and stood at the lowest level since November of last year.
The median sales price of a new home rose 2.5% (-0.1% y/y) in June to $417,300 (NSA) after falling 1.6% to $407,100 in May. The median sales price remained 9.3% below its October 2022 peak of $460,300. The average sales price of a new home fell 3.4% (-4.1% y/y) to $487,200 in June after rising 1.1% to $504,500 in May. These sales price data are not seasonally adjusted.
New home sales were mixed throughout the country last month. In the Northeast, sales fell 7.7% in June to 12,000, the fifth consecutive monthly decline which left them down by roughly two-thirds y/y. Sales in the Midwest declined 6.9% (+32.8% y/y) to 81,000 after falling 3.3% in May. Working the other way, sales in the West rose 1.4% (2.8% y/y) to 149,000 after falling 6.4% in May. New home sales In the South, new home sales improved 0.3% (-12.2% y/y) to 375,000 after falling 17.1% in May.
The number of unsold new homes on the market rose 0.8% (11.2% y/y) to 476,000 in June, the sixth consecutive monthly rise. It was the highest level since February 2008. The latest figure was well above a low of 282,000 in October 2020. The seasonally adjusted months' supply of new homes for sale rose to 9.3 months in June from 9.1 months in May, up from a low of 3.3 months in October 2020.
The median number of months a new home stayed on the market eased to 2.3 months in June from 2.4 months in May. The reading remained up from the record low of 1.5 months in both September and October of 2022 but down from a high of 5.1 months in March 2021. These figures date back to January 1975.
New home sales are recorded when the sales contract is signed. New home sales activity and prices are available in Haver's USECON database. The consensus expectation figure from Action Economics is available in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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