U.S. New Home Sales Ease in August
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Sales remain up sharply from 2022 low.
- Median sales price slips.
- Sales decline in most of country.
The Census Bureau reported that new single-family home sales fell 4.7% (+9.8% y/y) during August to 716,000 (SAAR) after rising 10.3% in July to 751,000, revised from 739,000. Sales rose 1.3% in June to 681,000, revised from 668,000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected new home sales of 700,000 for August. Sales were 30.6% below their peak of 1.031 million in October 2020. The fall in sales accompanied a decline in the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage to 6.50% last month from 6.85% in July. It has since fallen to a September average of 6.21% according to Freddie Mac.
The median sales price of a new home fell 2.0% (-4.6% y/y) in August to $420,600 (NSA) after rising 3.7% to $429,000 in July. The median sales price was 8.6% below its October 2022 peak of $460,300. The average sales price of a new home declined 3.0% (-7.1% y/y) to $492,700 in August after rising 2.3% to $508,200 in July. The average price was 9.0% below its peak of $541,200 in July 2022. These sales price data are not seasonally adjusted.
New home sales declined in most of the country last month. New home sales in the West declined 17.8% (-6.7% y/y) to 152,000 after rising 20.1% July. In the Northeast, sales fell 27.3% (-33.3% y/y) in August to 24,000 after rising 3.1% in July. Sales in the Midwest were off 5.8% (+26.6% y/y) to 81,000 after increasing 6.2% in July. Working higher, sales in the South rose 2.7% (18.0% y/y) to 459,000 after rising 8.0% in July.
The number of unsold new homes on the market rose 1.7% (9.1% y/y) to 467,000 last month following a 1.9% July decline. The seasonally adjusted months' supply of new homes for sale increased to 7.8 months in August from 7.3 months in July. It remained up from a low of 6.9 months in May 2023.
The median number of months a new home stayed on the market held steady at 2.3 months in August. The reading remained up from the record low of 1.5 months in both September and October of 2022 but down from a high of 5.1 months in March 2021. These figures date back to January 1975.
New home sales are recorded when the sales contract is signed. New home sales activity and prices are available in Haver's USECON database. The consensus expectation figure from Action Economics is available in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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