U.S. New Home Sales Ease in February
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Nonetheless, sales remain above their November low.
- Regional sales performance is mixed.
- Median sales price declines sharply.
New single-family home sales slipped 0.3% (+5.9% y/y) in February to 662,000 (SAAR) from 664,000 in January, revised from 661,000, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. The February reading remained above the November low of 609,000 and was improved from 543,000 sales registered in July 2022. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected sales of 675,000 new homes. Sales remained 35.7% below their peak of 1.029 million in August 2020.
By region, new home sales in the Northeast fell 31.5% (+60.9% y/y) to 37,000 in February after surging 92.9% in January to 54,000. Sales in the Midwest declined 2.4% (+15.3% y/y) to 83,000 after rising 30.8% in January. Offsetting these declines, new home sales in the West improved 2.3% (43.4% y/y) to 175,000, the highest level since last July. Sales in the South improved 3.7% (-10.0% y/y) to 367,000 in February after falling 14.5% in the prior month.
The median sales price of a new home declined 3.5% (-7.6% y/y) to $400,500 in February, the third consecutive monthly decline. The median sales price has fallen 19.4% since its October 2022 peak of $496,800. The average sales price of a new home weakened 7.3% (-2.8% y/y) to $485,000 in February, the lowest price since June 2022. These sales price data are not seasonally adjusted.
The number of unsold new homes on the market rose 1.3% (5.9% y/y) to 463,000 in February, the seventh straight m/m rise, to the highest level since October 2022. The latest figure was well above a low of 281,000 in October 2020. The seasonally adjusted months' supply of new homes for sale edged higher to 8.4 months in February. The months' supply remained down from a high of 10.1 months in July 2022.
The median number of months a new home stayed on the market was unchanged at 2.7 months in February, the highest since May 2023, up from 2.6 months in February of last year. The reading remained up from the record low of 1.5 months in both September and October of 2022 but down from a high of 5.1 months in March 2021. These figures date back to January 1975.
New home sales are recorded when the sales contract is signed. New home sales activity and prices are available in Haver's USECON database. The consensus expectation figure from Action Economics is available in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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