U.S. New Home Sales Rebound in March
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Sales rise to highest level in six months.
- Regional sales gain is broad-based.
- Median sales price increases sharply.
New single-family home sales strengthened 8.8% (8.3% y/y) to 693,000 (SAAR) after falling 5.1% to 637,000 in February, revised from 662,000, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The March reading was the highest in six months, up from the November low of 609,000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected sales of 670,000 new homes. Sales remained 32.7% below their peak of 1.029 million in August 2020.
By region, new home sales in the Northeast rebounded 27.8% in March (-13.2% y/y) to 46,000 after falling 25.0% in February. Sales in the Midwest rose 5.3% (23.4% y/y) to 79,000 after falling 10.7% in February. Sales in the South rose 7.7% (4.5% y/y) to 391,000 after falling 1.9% in February. New home sales in the West improved 8.6% (18.8% y/y) to 177,000 after weakening 3.6% in February.
The median sales price of a new home increased 6.0% (-1.9% y/y) to $430,700 in March following a 3.5% February decline. The median sales price remained 13.3% below its October 2022 peak of $496,800. The average sales price of a new home improved 7.4% (1.0% y/y) to $524,800 in March, the highest price since August of 2023. These sales price data are not seasonally adjusted.
The number of unsold new homes on the market rose 2.6% (10.2% y/y) to 477,000 in March, the eighth consecutive rise. It was the highest level since February 2008. The latest figure was well above a low of 281,000 in October 2020. The seasonally adjusted months' supply of new homes for sale eased to 8.3 months in March. The months' supply remained down from a high of 10.1 months in July 2022.
The median number of months a new home stayed on the market edged up to 2.8 months in March, the highest since May 2023 and increased from 2.7 months in March of last year. The reading remained up from the record low of 1.5 months in both September and October of 2022 but down from a high of 5.1 months in March 2021. These figures date back to January 1975.
New home sales are recorded when the sales contract is signed. New home sales activity and prices are available in Haver's USECON database. The consensus expectation figure from Action Economics is available in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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