U.S. New Home Sales Rebound in October
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Home sales gain reverses most of September decline.
- Sales changes are regionally uneven m/m.
- Median sales price strengthens.
New single-family home sales during October increased 7.5% (-5.8% y/y) to 632,000 (AR) from 588,000 in September, revised from 603,000. August sales totaled 661,000. Sales have fallen 39.0% from their peak of 1.036 million in August 2020. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected sales of 575,000 new homes.
Last month's gain in new home sales reflected varied movement amongst the states. In the Northeast, sales increased 45.7% (59.4% y/y) to 51,000 after rising 34.6% in September. Sales in the South rose 16.0% (-0.3% y/y) to 399,000 following a 20.6% decline in September. Sales in the West eased 0.8% (-22.8% y/y) in October to 132,000 which came after a 2.9% September decline. In the Midwest, new home sales declined 34.2% (-26.5% y/y) in October to 50,000 after a 16.9% September gain.
The median price of a new home increased 8.2% last month (15.4% y/y) to $493, 600 after rising 3.2% in September. The average sales price of a new home increased 5.3% (11.5% y/y) to $544,000 following a 2.6% September decline. These sales price data are not seasonally adjusted.
The number of unsold new homes on the market rose 1.5% (21.4% y/y) to a seasonally adjusted 470,000, up from a low of 142,000 in July 2012. The seasonally adjusted months' supply of new homes for sale eased to 8.9 months, but remained up from a low of 3.3 months in August 2020. The median number of months a new home stayed on the market edged up 1.6 from the record low of 1.5 months. These figures were down from a high of 5.1 months in March 2021. These figures date back to January 1975.
New home sales activity and prices are available in Haver's USECON database. The consensus expectation figure from Action Economics is available in the AS1REPNA database.
Passing Along Housing Wealth from Parents to Children from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found here.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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