U.S. New Home Sales Rise as Prices Drop in September
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Sales continue recent uptrend.
- Median sales price falls to three-month low; down sharply y/y.
- Everywhere in the country, sales move up.
New single-family home sales rose 12.3% (33.9% y/y) to 759,000 units (SAAR) during September from 676,000 in August, revised from 675,000, according to a release jointly issued by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected sales of 682,000. Sales remained below the peak of 1.029 million in August 2020.
The median price of a new home fell 3.3% (-12.3% y/y) to $418,800 during September following a 0.4% August easing. The recent peak of $496,800 occurred in October 2022. The average sales price of a new home declined 3.6% (-4.9% y/y) to 503,900 last month after a 3.0% August gain. These sales price data are not seasonally adjusted.
By region, new home sales in the Northeast strengthened 22.5% (63.3% y/y) to 49,000 in September after rising 48.1% in August. Sales in the South rose 14.6% last month (29.9% y/y) to 456,000 following declines in both of the prior two months. Sales in the West improved 7.5% in September (53.3% y/y) to 187,000 after falling 10.8% in August. Finally, September new home sales in the Midwest rose 4.7% both m/m and y/y to 67,000 after a 24.7% August decline.
The number of new homes on the market rose 0.7% (-5.4% y/y) to 435,000 (SA) last month, the fourth consecutive monthly rise. The latest figure stands well above their 281,000 low in October 2020. The seasonally adjusted months' supply of new homes for sale fell to 6.9 months in September, the lowest level since February of last year and down from a high of 10.1 months in July 2022.
The median number of months a new home stayed on the market held at 2.4 months in September. The reading remained up from the record low of 1.5 months in both September and October of last year, but down from a high of 5.1 months in March 2021. These figures date back to January 1975.
New home sales activity and prices are available in Haver's USECON database. The consensus expectation figure from Action Economics is available in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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