U.S. Pending Home Sales Decline Sharply in January
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Sales decline to record low.
- Home sales fall across much of country.
The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking measure of home sales based on contract signings, fell 4.6% (-5.2% y/y) during January after falling 4.1% in December, revised from down 5.5%, and rising 0.8% in November, revised from 1.6%, according to the National Association of Realtors.
The sales decline occurred as the average rate on a 30-year mortgage rose to 6.96% in January, after falling to 6.72% in December. The rate averaged 6.64% in January of last year. It hit a low of 6.18% averaged in September of last year.
Regional sales patterns varied greatly during January. In the South, sales fell 9.2% (-8.8% y/y) after weakening 2.7% in December. Sales stood at a record low. Pending home sales in the Midwest were off 2.0% (-2.7% y/y) after falling 3.5% in December. Also moving lower were pending home sales in the West which declined 1.2% (-4.5% y/y) after falling 6.4% in December. Working higher, pending home sales in the Northeast edged up 0.3% (-0.5% y/y) after falling 6.0% in December.
The pending home sales index measures sales at the time the contract for the purchase of an existing home is signed, similar to the Census Bureau's new home sales data. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales data are recorded when the sale is closed, which is usually a couple of months after the sales contract has been signed. In developing the pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract activity leads the level of closed existing home sales by about two months.
The series dates back to January 2001 and are available in Haver's PREALTOR database. Weekly mortgage interest rates from the Mortgage Bankers Association can be found in the WEEKLY database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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