U.S. Retail Sales Pick Up in September as Nonauto Sales Firm
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Core sales post strong increase.
- Miscellaneous store sales surge.
- Motor vehicle sales steady while gasoline purchases fall sharply.
Total retail sales increased 0.4% (1.7% y/y) during September after an unrevised 0.1% August increase and a minimally revised 1.2% gain in July, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. A 0.3% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Excluding motor vehicles & parts, retail sales rose 0.5% (2.2% y/y) after increasing 0.2% in August, revised from 0.1%, and 0.5% in July, revised from 0.4%. A 0.2% gain had been expected.
Sales of motor vehicles & parts held steady (-0.3% y/y) last month after falling 0.4% in August. This compares to a 5.7% rise (2.2% y/y) in unit light vehicle sales which followed a 5.1% August increase.
Sales in the retail control group, which excludes autos, building materials, gasoline stations, and food services, rose 0.7% (4.0% y/y) in September, the fifth straight rise. These sales are used in the construction of personal consumption expenditures in NIPA accounts.
Elsewhere, sales performance was mixed in September. Miscellaneous store sales, which account for 2.2% of the total, surged 4.0% (7.9% y/y) in September after improving 0.3% in August. Clothing & accessory store sales increased 1.5% (3.5% y/y) after weakening 0.8% in August. General merchandise store sales gained 0.5% (2.6% y/y) following a 0.4% decline. Within that category, sales at department stores rose 0.4% in September (-1.2% y/y) after a 1.0% decline. Nonstore retail sales improved 0.4% (7.1% y/y) following a 1.6% rise. Sporting goods, hobby shop, book & music store sales rose 0.3% (-3.5% y/y) after they edged 0.1% higher in August. Building materials & garden equipment store sales rose 0.2% (0.5% y/y) after holding roughly steady in August.
To the downside, electronics & appliance store sales weakened 3.3% in September (-4.6% y/y) after falling 1.7% in August. Furniture & home furnishing store sales declined 1.4% (-2.3% y/y) after they eased 0.4% in August. Gasoline station sales dropped 1.6% (-10.7% y/y) last month, the fourth decline in five months.
In the nondiscretionary sales categories, health & personal care store sales rose 1.1% (4.6% y/y) in last month after a 0.6% August rise. It was the fifth consecutive monthly increase. Food & beverage store sales also were strong last month and rose 1.0% (2.5% y/y) after falling 0.5% in August.
Consumers’ penchant to dine out continued last month. Restaurant & drinking place sales increased 1.0% (3.7% y/y) in September, the sixth consecutive monthly rise.
Retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in AS1REPNA.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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