U.S. Retail Sales Surge in January
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Increases are widespread.
- Discretionary outlays lead the upturn.
- Gasoline spending is unchanged.
After showing restraint for two months, consumers’ inclination to spend kicked into high gear last month as employment grew and core goods price inflation behaved. Retail sales jumped 3.0% during January (6.4% y/y), the largest monthly increase since March 2021. It followed an unrevised 1.1% December decline and a little-revised 1.1% November drop. A 2.0% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The widespread nature of the increase is highlighted by the 2.3% strengthening (7.3% y/y) in nonauto sales last month. It recovered declines of 0.9% and 0.8% in December and November, respectively. Expectations had been for a 0.8% increase.
Last month’s sales strength was led by a 5.9% surge (2.8% y/y) in motor vehicle sales after they weakened 1.8% in December and 2.2% in November. The increase compared to a 19.2% rise in unit vehicle sales which also recovered two months of sharp decline. Gasoline station sales held steady last month (+5.7% y/y) after falling sharply in five of the prior six months.
Sales amongst other stores were strong. Spending in the retail control group, which excludes autos, building materials, gasoline & restaurants, jumped 1.7% (4.4% y/y) after easing 0.7% in December and 0.5% in November.
Furniture and home furnishing store sales surged 4.4% (3.8% y/y) after declining 1.6% in December. Electronics and appliance store sales improved 3.5% (-6.3% y/y) after sharp declines during each of the prior eight months. Sales of nonstore retailers rose 1.3% (3.0% y/y) last month after a 1.0% decline while apparel sales improved 2.5% (6.3% y/y) in January after easing modestly in each of the prior three months. General merchandise sales improved 3.2% (4.5% y/y) after three months of slight decline. Within that category, department store sales strengthened 17.5% (5.4% y/y) after sharp declines from October through December. Sporting goods & hobby shop store sales improved 0.2% (6.9% y/y), the same as in December. Building materials store sales rose 0.3% (1.1% y/y) after December’s 1.1% jump.
In the nondiscretionary sales categories, health & personal care store sales rebounded 1.9% (3.6% y/y) after a 1.8% December decline. Food & beverage store sales rose 0.1% last month (6.2% y/y) and recovered December’s 0.1% dip.
Consumers drove sales at restaurant & drinking places up by 7.2% in January (25.2% y/y) after holding roughly steady in December and November.
Retail Sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in AS1REPNA.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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