U.S. Retail Sales Unexpectedly Decline in January; Non-auto Sales Also Weaken
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Spending retreat spreads across most categories.
- Online buying & building material sales fall sharply.
- Gasoline sales drop significantly with lower prices.
Retail sales declined 0.8% (+0.6% y/y) during January after increasing 0.4% in December, revised from 0.6%, and little-change in November, revised from 0.3%. A 0.1% easing had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Retail sales excluding motor vehicles & parts declined 0.6% (+1.2% y/y) last month after rising an unrevised 0.4% in December and slipping 0.1% for two straight months. A 0.3% rise in January sales had been expected.
Also weakening last month were sales in the retail control group, which excludes autos, building materials, gasoline & restaurants. They declined 0.4% (+2.5% y/y) after increasing 0.6% in December, revised from a 0.8% gain. November sales rose 0.2%, revised from a 0.5% improvement.
Last month’s overall sales decline reflected a 1.7% drop (-1.6% y/y) in sales of motor vehicle & parts dealers which came after a 0.3% December gain. Online sales were off 0.8% (+6.4% y/y) following a 1.4% December increase and sales of building materials & garden equipment declined 4.1% (-8.3% y/y) after rising 0.9% in December. Electronics & appliance store sales fell 0.4% (-5.8% y/y), the third consecutive monthly decline. Sales of sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores weakened 0.2% (-3.2% y/y) after falling 0.7% in December. Apparel store sales also eased 0.2% (+0.5% y/y) following a 1.3% gain. Gasoline service station sales fell 1.7% (-7.5% y/y) with lower prices, the fourth straight month of sharp decline. Offsetting this weakness, furniture & home furnishings store sales rose 1.5% in January (-9.8% y/y) after falling 0.2% in December. General merchandise store sales were flat (+0.9% y/y) after rising 1.2%, while department store sales improved 0.5% (-6.7% y/y) after strengthening 2.8% in December.
Sales were soft in the nondiscretionary sales categories. Health & personal care store sales declined 1.1% in January (+5.0% y/y), after falling 1.6% in December. Food & beverage store sales edged 0.1% higher (1.9% y/y) after a 0.2% December increase.
Consumer spending at restaurants & drinking places improved 0.7% last month (6.3% y/y) after rising 0.2% in December.
Retail Sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in AS1REPNA.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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