U.S. Trade Deficit Narrows in June as Imports Decline
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Import decline is fourth in five months.
- Exports are little changed.
- Goods trade deficit falls; services surplus steadies.
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services (BOP basis) fell to $65.5 billion during June from $68.3 billion in May, revised from $69.0 billion. It was the second straight month of deficit narrowing. A $65.0 billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Exports eased 0.1% (-4.3% y/y) after falling 0.5% in May, revised from a 0.8% decline. Imports declined 1.0% (-7.8% y/y) after an unrevised 2.3% decline in May.
The narrowing of the goods & services deficit in June reflected a shallower goods trade deficit of $88.2 billion compared to a $91.0 billion deficit in May. Goods exports eased 0.1% (-8.9% y/y) after a 1.2% decline. Imports of goods weakened 1.2% (-9.7% y/y) following a 2.7% decline. The services trade surplus was unchanged at $22.7 billion, its highest level since January 2021. Exports of services edged 0.2% lower (+6.5% y/y) after a 0.8% rise. Imports of services slipped 0.3% (+1.2% y/y) in June after falling modestly in each of the prior three months.
The real (inflation-adjusted) goods trade deficit in June narrowed to $86.2 billion (chained 2012 dollars) from $88.9 billion in May. Real exports rose 0.5% (1.3% y/y) following a 1.6% rise in May while real imports were off 0.9% (-4.0% y/y), the forth decline in the last five months.
The Customs value goods trade deficit narrowed to $88.8 billion in June after falling to $91.6 billion in May. Goods exports were off 0.1% (-9.3% y/y) following a 0.6% decline. Exports of food, feeds & beverages rose 0.1% (-23.4% y/y). Auto exports fell 0.4% (+16.3% y/y) while nonauto consumer goods exports declined 1.8% (+2.1% y/y). Capital goods exports rose 1.5% (6.7% y/y) while exports of industrial supplies and materials fell 1.2% (-26.3% y/y).
Customs value imports of goods declined 1.1% (-9.6% y/y) in June following a 2.6% May shortfall. The fall reflected a 3.9% decline (-25.6% y/y) of industrial supplies & materials imports. Foods, feeds & beverage import rose 2.0% (-9.0% y/y). Auto imports improved 3.5% (22.7% y/y) while nonauto consumer goods imports rose 0.7% (-15.9% y/y). Petroleum imports fell 1.8% (+0.4% y/y) in June while nonpetroleum imports declined 0.8% (-4.5% y/y).
The 0.2% June decline (+6.5% y/y) in services exports reflected a 0.4% fall (+25.3% y/y) in travel exports and a 0.2% increase (2.0% y/y) in financial services. Services imports eased 0.3% in June (+1.2% y/y) as travel imports fell 2.4% (+20.8% y/y), and transport services rose 0.6% (-20.9% y/y).
The goods trade deficit with China narrowed to a seasonally adjusted $22.8 billion in June from $24.9 billion in May. Exports fell 1.6% (-11.1% y/y) while imports weakened 6.4% (-29.0% y/y). The goods trade deficit with the European Union deepened to $18.2 billion in June, a four-month low. The trade shortfall with Japan grew to $6.1 billion from $5.0 billion in May.
The international trade data, including relevant data on oil prices, can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures on international trade are available in the USINT database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in AS1REPNA.
Why Do Forecasters Disagree about Their Monetary Policy Expectations? from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York can be found here.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
