U.S. Trade Deficit Narrows in March
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Deficit is lowest in four months.
- Exports strengthen while imports ease.
- Goods trade deficit shrinks; services surplus steadies.
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services (BOP basis) narrowed to $64.2 billion in March from $70.6 billion in February, revised from $70.5. A $63.5 billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Exports rose 2.1% (5.0% y/y) in March following a 2.8% decline, revised from 2.7%. Imports eased 0.3% (-8.6% y/y) after a 1.6% drop in February, revised from -1.5%.
The narrowing in the goods and services deficit in March was due entirely to a lessened goods trade deficit of $86.6 billion compared to a $93.0 billion deficit in February. Goods exports rose 3.1% (2.6% y/y) after a 4.8% decline. Imports of goods eased 0.5% (-11.8% y/y following a 2.2% decline. The services trade surplus held steady at $22.4 billion. Exports of services edged 0.1% higher (10.6% y/y) following a 1.8% gain. Imports of services rose 0.2% (9.0% y/y) in March after rising 1.1% in February.
The real (inflation-adjusted) goods trade deficit narrowed to $99.4 billion (chained 2012 dollars) from $104.0 billion in February. Real exports rose 3.5% (7.6% y/y) while real imports edged 0.3% higher (-8.6% y/y).
The Customs value goods trade deficit narrowed to $85.5 billion in March after widening to $92.0 billion in February. Exports rose 3.0% (2.7% y/y) following a 3.9% decline. Exports of food, feeds & beverages fell 3.7% (-6.1% y/y. Offsetting the decline were increases everywhere else. Auto exports rose 4.8% (11.8% y/y) while nonauto consumer goods exports improved 1.4% (9.9% y/y). Capital goods exports edged 0.4% higher (6.6% y/y) while exports of industrial supplies and materials jumped 6.3% (-3.5% y/y). Customs value imports eased 0.5% (-11.9% y/y) in March following a 2.3% February drop. The decline was led by a 3.7% rise (-19.6% y/y) in nonauto consumer goods and a 2.4% decline (-23.9% y/y) in industrial supplies. Auto imports eased 0.4% (+8.8% y/y). Imports of foods and feeds rose 0.9% (-3.9% y/y). Petroleum imports fell 6.9% (+1.0% y/y) in March while nonpetroleum imports rose 1.0% (-9.5% y/y).
The 0.1% increase (10.6% y/y) in services exports reflected a 1.6% increase (48.3% y/y) in travel exports and a 0.5% increase (7.9% y/y) in financial services. Recreational services exports rose 0.5% (-2.4% y/y). Services imports improved as travel imports strengthened 6.2% (59.0% y/y), but transport services fell 5.0% (-6.4% y/y).
The goods trade deficit with China eased to a seasonally adjusted $22.9 billion in March from $25.2 billion in February. Exports rose 10.2% (6.0% y/y) while imports fell 2.4% (-34.6% y/y). The goods trade deficit with the European Union narrowed to $15.6 billion in March from $18.1 billion in February. The trade shortfall with Japan was little changed at $5.9 billion.
The international trade data, including relevant data on oil prices, can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures on international trade are available in the USINT database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in AS1REPNA.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
