U.S. Trade Deficit Narrows in November; Exports & Imports Decline

The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services (BOP basis) eased to $63.2 billion from $64.5 billion in October, revised from $64.3 billion, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit compared to $63.8 billion one year earlier. A $64.9 billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Exports fell 1.9% (+0.4% y/y) in November following a 1.1% October decline. Imports also fell 1.9% (+0.1% y/y) after increasing 0.2% in October.

The $89.4 trade deficit in goods (BOP basis) in November compared to $90.0 billion in October. Goods exports fell 3.1% (-2.6% y/y) after a 1.9% fall. Imports of goods weakened 2.3% (+0.4% y/y) after edging 0.1% higher in October. The services trade surplus increased to a near-record $26.2 billion in November after rising to $25.5 billion in October, larger than the $20.2 billion surplus one year earlier. Services exports grew 0.7% (6.8% y/y) in November, the fourth straight m/m gain, after rising 0.5% in October. Services imports eased 0.2% (-0.9% y/y) following a 0.3% October rise.

The real (inflation-adjusted) goods trade deficit (customs value, chained 2017 dollars) narrowed to $84.8 billion in November from $87.2 billion in October. It was smaller than the $113.6 billion peak March 2022. Real exports of goods fell 2.3% (+0.7% y/y) after easing 0.4% in October. Real imports of goods declined 2.4% (+1.8% y/y) after a 0.1% uptick.

Foods, feeds & beverage exports in constant dollars weakened 1.1% (+10.9% y/y). Real auto exports declined 5.7% (-1.1% y/y) while nonfood consumer goods excluding autos were off 2.3% (-5.7% y/y). Real exports of industrial supplies & materials fell 3.5% (-2.0% y/y), reversing a 4.4% October rise; exports of capital goods excluding autos rose 0.1% (2.9% y/y), up for the consecutive month.

Customs value imports in $2017 fell 2.4% (+1.8% y/y) in November after edging 0.1% higher in October, reflecting a 0.5% decline (-4.5% y/y) in foods, feeds & beverages. Real capital goods imports excluding autos fell 1.0% (-4.4% y/y) while real consumer goods imports excluding autos were off 6.4% (+0.5% y/y). Real imports of automotive vehicles, parts & engines eased 0.5% (+18.4% y/y) and real industrial supplies & materials imports dropped 1.8% (-4.2%; -13.8% y/y).

The 0.7% rise in services exports reflected a 1.4% increase (20.8% y/y) in travel exports. Insurance services exports rose 1.5% (12.3% y/y but construction services exports fell 5.8% (-45.4% y/y). A 0.2% decline (-0.9% y/y) in services imports reflected a 2.7% gain (16.2% y/y) in travel services and 0.6% rise (-8.0% y/y) in financial services. Imports for the use of intellectual property eased 0.4% (-9.0% y/y).

The U.S. goods trade deficit with China narrowed to a seasonally adjusted $21.5 billion in November after easing to $23.9 billion in October. Exports fell 13.0% (-12.2% y/y); imports fell 11.2% (-2.6% y/y) after an 8.5% rise. The goods trade deficit with the European Union narrowed to $15.6 with exports rising 4.3% (3.3% y/y) and imports falling 4.6% (-3.9% y/y). The trade shortfall with Japan deepened to $7.0 billion in November after narrowing to $6.6 billion in the previous month, reflecting a decline of 4.6% (-2.0% y/y) in exports and a 1.5% increase (10.6% y/y) in imports. The trade deficit with China was the largest among the three trading partners.

The international trade data, including relevant data on oil prices, can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures on international trade are available in the USINT database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in AS1REPNA.