U.S. Trade Deficit Narrows Slightly in June
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Trade shortfall is smallest in three months.
- Export gain outpaces import increase.
- Trade deficits with China, Japan & European Union narrow.
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services (BOP basis) narrowed to $73.1 billion during June from $75.0 billion in May, revised from $75.1 billion, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a deficit of $72.5 billion. Exports rose 1.5% (5.9% y/y) last month following a 0.5% slip during May. Imports edged 0.6% higher (7.3% y/y) following a 0.3% decline in May.
The goods deficit (Census) declined to $96.6 billion in June from $99.1 billion. It was the shallowest deficit in three months. Goods exports rose 2.7% in June (6.1% y/y) after a 1.6% decline. The strength in goods exports was spread across end-use categories including a 5.2% rise in auto exports, a 3.7% gain in capital goods and a 4.9% jump in foods, feeds & beverages exports. Nonfood consumer goods exports excluding autos edged 0.2% higher. Imports of goods rose 0.8% (7.1% y/y) following a 0.7% slip during May. Consumer goods imports rose 3.7% and capital goods imports increased 2.9%. Offsetting these gains, industrial supplies & materials imports fell 3.4%, auto imports were off 0.6%, foods, feeds & beverage imports fell 1.6% and motor vehicle imports weakened 0.6%.
The services surplus narrowed to $24.2 billion in June from $24.8 billion in May. Exports of services slipped 0.5% (+7.0% y/y) after a 1.3% May gain. Travel exports declined 2.0% and transport exports weakened 1.0%. These declines were offset by a 0.9% rise in construction exports and a 0.5% rise in insurance exports. Imports of services rose 0.2% (8.7% y/y) in June after a 1.8% gain in May. The increase reflected a 0.7% rise in travel imports, a 1.2% decline in transport and a 0.6% rise in financial services imports. Charges for use of intellectual property rose 0.7%.
The real (inflation-adjusted) goods trade deficit (customs value) narrowed to $91.4 billion in June from $93.9 billion in May. Real exports of goods increased 3.2% (4.8% y/y) after a 0.7% monthly decline in May. Real imports of goods rose 0.9% (5.4% y/y) following a 0.4% slip May. During 2Q’24, trade deficit deterioration subtracted 0.72 percentage point from real GDP growth.
The U.S. goods trade deficit with China narrowed to a seasonally adjusted $22.3 billion in June from $23.9 billion in May. Exports strengthened 6.8% while imports fell 2.2%. The goods trade deficit with the European Union fell to $18.0 billion in June from $19.3 billion in May. Exports increased 5.5% and imports edged 0.6% higher. The trade deficit with Japan declined to $4.9 billion in June from $6.3 billion in May. Exports jumped 12.4% while imports declined 4.4%.
The international trade data, including relevant data on oil prices, can be found in Haver’s USECON database. Detailed figures on international trade are available in the USINT database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in AS1REPNA.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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