Tom Moeller

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The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index increased 1.2% (17.6% y/y) during December after a 1.2% November rise, revised from 1.1%. During all of 2021, house prices rose a record 16.8%, following a 7.9% increase in 2020. The home price series dates back to January 1991.

December-to-December, price gains were led by the Mountain region (23.2% y/y), South Atlantic states (20.6% y/y) and the Pacific (19.4% y/y) regions.

Not far behind were gains in the East South Central (18.5% y/y), West South Central (17.9% y/y) regions and New England (16.5% y/y).

Hefty price gains occurred last year also in the East North Central (14.1% y/y), West North Central (13.9% y/y) and Middle Atlantic (13.4% y/y) regions of the country.

The FHFA house price index is a weighted purchase-only index that measures average price changes in repeat sales of the same property. An associated quarterly index includes refinancings on the same kinds of properties. The indexes are based on transactions involving conforming conventional mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Only mortgage transactions on single-family properties are included.

The FHFA data are available in Haver's **USECON** database.

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* **House price advance doubles in 2021.**
* **Strength is broad regionally.**
* **December's price gain is led by New England.**

U.S. FHFA House Price Index Remains Strong in December

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Carol Stone, CBE

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Industrial production (IP) decreased 0.3% in October (-0.3% y/y) following a 0.5% decline in September, which was revised from -0.3%, and a 0.5% increase in August, revised from +0.3%. The October result was equal to the Action Economics Forecast Survey estimate of -0.3%. The Federal Reserve estimates that the strike at Boeing reduced total IP by 0.2% in October after cutting it by 0.3% in September, and the effects of Hurricanes Helene and Milton reduced the total by 0.1% in October.

Industrial production in manufacturing industries fell 0.5% in October (-0.3% y/y) after a 0.3% decrease in September, revised from -0.4% reported before, but a 0.6% rise in August, revised slightly from 0.5%. The October amount was reduced by a 1.2% decline in durable goods manufacturing which followed a 0.7% decrease in September.  Among major durable goods industries, aerospace and other miscellaneous transportation industries had a 5.8% decline in October, which followed an 8.0% reduction in September. Motor vehicles and parts production fell 3.1% in October and just 0.4% in September.

Output of nondurable goods industries increased 0.1% in both October and September, which followed a modest 0.1% decrease in August. The largest October increase among nondurable goods industries was in petroleum and coal, in which production rose 0.9% after a 1.5% increase in September and 0.9% in August. Output of chemical industries rose 0.6% in October and production of paper increased 0.5%.  Other nondurable goods saw production decreases in October, especially printing and related activities, -2.6%, and plastics and rubber products, -1.0%.

Output in nonmanufacturing industries rose in October, with electric and gas utilities up 0.7% after 0.3% in September and mining output up 0.3% in October following a drop of 1.9% in September.

Capacity utilization across all industries was 77.1% in October, down from 77.4% in September and 77.9% in August.  The Action Economics Forecast Survey had estimated 77.2%. While the actual amount had a moderate reduction, it did yield the lowest utilization rate since 76.6% in April 2021. In the manufacturing sector, utilization was 76.1%, down from 76.6% in September and the lowest since 73.8% in February 2021.

Industrial production and capacity data are in Haver’s **USECON** database. Additional detail on production and capacity utilization can be found in the **IP** database. The expectations figures come from the **AS1REPNA** database.


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- Total production down 0.3% in October with downward revision to September
- Manufacturing output down 0.5%
- Capacity utilization rate in manufacturing lowest since early 2021



U.S. Industrial Production Down Again with Boeing Strike and Hurricane Effects Continuing

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Total business inventories rose 0.1% (2.2% y/y) in September following three consecutive months of 0.3% increase. A 0.2% rise had been expected in the Informa Global Markets Survey.

Retail inventories rose 0.9% (6.7% y/y) in September after a 0.8% August increase. Monthly Increases have been fairly stable for six months. Motor vehicle inventories increased 2.1% (20.9% y/y) after a 1.2% rise.	General merchandise inventories rose 0.2% (2.3% y/y) after a 1.4% gain. Food and beverage store inventories fell 0.5% (+0.6% y/y) following a 1.3% increase. 
Furniture & appliance inventories rose 0.3% (-5.5% y/y) after falling 0.8%. Clothing inventories rose 0.8% (2.5% y/y) after two consecutive 0.9% increases while inventories of building materials rose 0.6% (-0.2% y/y) after a 0.3% gain.

Manufacturing inventories edged 0.2% lower (+0.2% y/y) in September after rising 0.1% in August. Wholesale inventories fell 0.2% (+0.3% y/y) in September after increasing 0.2% in both of the prior two months.

Total business sales rose 0.3% (0.5% y/y) in September after a 0.2% decline in August.  Factory shipments fell 0.4% (+0.2% y/y) after a 0.7% decline. Wholesale sales rose 0.3% (-0.4% y/y) following a 0.2% increase. Retail sales increased 0.8% (1.7% y/y) following a 0.2% decline.

The inventory/sales (I/S) ratio held steady at 1.38 and has been roughly stable since late in 2022. The manufacturing I/S ratio held m/m at 1.46 in September, up from 1.45 in July. The wholesale I/S eased to 1.34 but has been moving sideways since the middle of last year. The retail I/S ratio held m/m at 1.33, up sharply from early-2021.

The manufacturing and trade data are in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Informa Global Markets forecast is in the **MMSAMER** database.


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- Inventories increase is led by retailers.
- Sales improvement also paced by retailers.
- Inventory/sales ratio is steady.


U.S. Business Inventories and Sales Increase in September

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Total retail sales increased 0.4% (2.8% y/y) during October after a 0.8% September gain, revised from 0.4%. August sales eased 0.1%, revised from a 0.1% rise, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. A 0.3% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Excluding motor vehicles & parts, retail sales edged 0.1% higher (2.7% y/y) after a 1.0% September rise, revised from 0.5%. August sales less autos were revised to a 0.1% decline from a 0.2% increase. Sales of motor vehicles & parts rose 1.6% (3.4% y/y) last month after rising a minimally revised 0.2% in September. This compares to a 0.8% gain (4.1 y/y) in unit light vehicle sales which followed a 4.9% September increase.

Sales in the retail control group, which excludes autos, building materials, gasoline stations, and food services, eased 0.1% (+3.6% y/y) after rising 1.2% in September, revised from 0.7%. These sales are used in the construction of personal consumption expenditures in NIPA accounts.

Elsewhere, sales performance was mixed in October. Electronics & appliance store sales jumped 2.3% (-2.3% y/y) after falling 2.9% in September. Building materials & garden equipment store sales rose 0.5% (2.8% y/y) after rising 1.0%. Sales of nonstore retailers grew 0.3% (7.0% y/y) after a 1.7% rise. General merchandise store purchases improved 0.2% (3.1% y/y) after a 0.6% gain. Within that category, department store sales eased 0.2% (-0.0% y/y) following a 0.4% rise.  Gasoline service station sales edged up 0.1% (-7.1% y/y) after falling 0.9% in September.

Working lower, sporting goods, hobby shop, book & music store sales fell 1.1% (-3.4% y/y) after they moved 0.9% higher in September. Furniture & home furnishing store sales declined 1.3% (+1.5% y/y) after they rose 0.7% in September. 
Miscellaneous store sales, which account for 2.2% of the total, declined 1.6% (+4.0% y/y) after improving 2.2% in September.

In the nondiscretionary categories, health & personal care store sales declined 1.1% (+1.6% y/y) last month after a 2.3% September rise. It was the first decline in six months. Food & beverage store sales edged 0.1% higher last month and rose 2.7% y/y).

Consumers’ penchant to dine out continued last month. Restaurant & drinking place sales increased 0.7% (4.3% y/y) in October, the seventh consecutive monthly rise.

Retail sales data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**

Economic Outlook from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell can be found [here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20241114a.htm).

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- September sales increase is doubled.
- Most sales categories’ sales are little changed. 
- Motor vehicle sales surge while gasoline purchases edge higher.


U.S. Retail Sales Rise Moderately in October; Nonauto Sales Gain Minimally

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Prices in the foreign trade sector rose last month. Import prices rose 0.3% (0.8% y/y) in October following a 0.4% (-0.1% y/y) decline in September. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.1% decline. Export prices rose 0.8% (-0.1% y/y) in October, after a 0.6% (-1.9% y/y) decline in September, revised from -0.7%. The Action Economic Forecast Survey expected a 0.1% drop.

Import prices excluding fuels rose 0.2% (2.3% y/y) in October, following a 0.2% (2.0% y/y) rise in September. Import prices for fuels & lubricants rose 1.5% (-13.6% y/y), following the drop of 7.5% (-18.2% y/y) in September. Prices for overall industrial supplies and materials rose 1.4% (-1.4% y/y) in October, after a decline of 2.0% (-4.6% y/y) in September. Auto import prices edged up 0.1% (2.3% y/y) last month, following a rise of 0.2% (2.7% y/y) in September. Nonauto consumer goods prices increased 0.1% (1.2% y/y) after a similar 0.1% (0.8% y/y) rise in September. Capital goods prices edged higher by 0.1% (0.8% y/y) after a rise of 0.1% (0.4% y/y) the prior month. However, foods, feeds & beverage prices declined 1.6% (+3.9% y/y) in October after 0.1% (+5.2% y/y) decline in September.

The rise in export prices in October was broad-based. Agricultural commodities rose 2.0% (-1.9% y/y) in October, after a 0.9% (-4.8% y/y) rise in September. Nonagricultural product prices rose 0.6% (0.0% y/y) following a decline of 0.8% (-1.5% y/y) in September. Export prices of industrial supplies and materials rose 1.3% (-2.3% y/y) in October after a drop of 1.9% (-5.6% y/y) the prior month.  Motor vehicle & parts prices rose 0.5% (3.3% y/y) in October after being flat (+3.0% y/y) in September. Nonauto consumer goods prices declined 0.2% (-0.7% y/y) last month after a rise of 0.3% (-0.8% y/y) in September. Capital goods prices rose 0.2% (1.8% y/y) after being flat (+1.6% y/y) in September.

Each of these monthly trade price numbers are not seasonally adjusted. The import and export price series can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Detailed figures are available in the **USINT** database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.



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- Import prices rose in most categories last month and are up y/y.
- Export price increases were broad-based, but still declining y/y.


U.S. Import and Export Prices Rose in October